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| #982065 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 13.Sep.2019) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 74.9W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.9 West. The disturbance is moving northwestward at about 3 mph (5 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern Georgia...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
