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| #982084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 13.Sep.2019) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
