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| #982241 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 14.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it is still located south of the main area of deep convection. Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the center of the cyclone. The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken, and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days. Key Messages: 1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 26.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 28.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 31.5N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
