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| #982275 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 14.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane indicated that the circulation was much better defined than yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and the low-level center is now under the convection. However, the Dvorak numbers still support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time. Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues to call for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right turn in 2 or 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 27.4N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
