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| #982593 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 17.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will check the hurricane's structure in the morning. Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about 24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to be hostile, resulting in weakening. By day 5, if not sooner, the cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to acquire extratropical characteristics at that time. Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next 5 days. Track models are in good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official forecast. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 74.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
