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| #982728 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 17.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory. The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
