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| #982914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 18.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been restored. However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down. The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt. Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite a decaying appearance in satellite imagery. The SFMR surface wind estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center, and the central pressure was near 952 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt. The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models forecast to be complete by 36 h. Those models forecast that the cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast, with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h. The initial motion is now 055/20. Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the next several hours. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing, could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 34.0N 63.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 35.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 38.5N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 40.7N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 42.4N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z 45.0N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0000Z 50.0N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
