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| #982965 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 19.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Flight-level and surface wind observations reported by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exiting Humberto a couple of hours ago indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 kt. However, weakening is expected to commence soon. Humberto's extratropical transition continues as a high amplitude PV tongue, noted in the GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and associated dry air, digs into the backside of the cyclone. The large-scale models, as well as the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, indicate that the process will be completed in less than 36 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected until the extratropical low is absorbed by another larger low pressure system, moving out of Atlantic Canada, by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast and is based on a blend of the global models beyond the 36 hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt. Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone completes its extratropical transition, followed by a turn back toward the east-northeast within the strong deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is nudged a little to the left of the previous advisory between the 36 and 72 hour periods, and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model. Key Messages: 1. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing, could cause coastal flooding today along the coast of Bermuda. 2. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 35.2N 62.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
