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| #983027 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 19.Sep.2019) TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Deep convection is most organized to the north and west of the partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that Humberto will become fully extratropical later today. Despite the fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the mid- to upper-level low. After that, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The cyclone should be absorbed by another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
