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| #983158 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 19.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12 to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is near or a little above the model consensus. Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus model, or HCCA, track. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
