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| #983348 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 21.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches, across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
