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| #983661 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 23.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 270/13 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so, resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were required. The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |
