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| #983683 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 AM 23.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
