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| #983725 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 23.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
