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| #98379 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 18.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
