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| #983863 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 24.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Jerry`s interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however, we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance. Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
