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| #983864 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 24.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
