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| #983963 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 AM 25.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
