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| #984015 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with a small central convective feature surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west- northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening, with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h, Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
