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| #984061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. However, wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites. Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely. The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip, or 070/10 kt. A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before dissipating. This is the last advisory on Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 32.2N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
