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| #984084 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen`s cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are still occuring in the southeast quadrant. Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so. A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile upper-level winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
