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| #984116 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 26.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo`s satellite appearance continues to steadily improve. The cyclone has a large central dense overcast, with outflow established in all quadrants. The hurricane has at times shown signs of a developing eye, however, it has been mostly obscured during the last few hours by expanding cloud tops associated with central (and likely eyewall) convection. Although the eye is not yet apparent in geostationary imagery, a 0618 UTC SSMIS overpass showed that Lorenzo has developed a well-defined mid-level eye. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications both support an intensity of 90 kt but objective estimates are lower. The intensity of Lorenzo is therefore held at 85 kt as a compromise of the higher subjective and lower objective assessments, but this could be a little conservative. The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward, but a turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Lorenzo has reached a break in the subtropical ridge to the north and should now begin to gain latitude at a faster rate. By day 3, the global models show Lorenzo moving northward along the western periphery of the ridge and by the end of the period it will likely turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. While the models still differ on the details of the forecast, like how fast Lorenzo will be moving once it turns northward, they all show this general evolution. The NHC forecast is mostly an update of the previous advisory and is just west of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo has several more days during which it could strengthen. The primary limiting factor appears to be the size of Lorenzo, which is considerable and is forecast to increase. This will likely only slow down Lorenzo`s strengthening, not prevent it. By 72 h, Lorenzo could experience an increase in shear, and most of the guidance responds by forecasting very slow weakening. The official intensity forecast is generally close to HCCA and IVCN at all lead times and is not very different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.1N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
