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| #984214 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 26.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today. In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low. Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in 3 days or so as forecast by global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
