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| #984271 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 27.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Karen`s associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone`s current structure, however, it`s entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
