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| #98465 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 19.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON ...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE CIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS BERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 35.6N 73.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.6N 73.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 73.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 41.3N 68.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/1200Z 44.9N 61.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1200Z 47.0N 52.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE |
