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| #984816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 01.Oct.2019) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN AZORES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SOON AS LORENZO MOVES CLOSER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 35.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 35.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
