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| #986119 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 13.Oct.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center. Strong westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days. Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt. There has been no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Melissa should accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 40.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
