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| #98647 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 20.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF BERYL ON THE DOVER DELAWARE WSR-88D HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A PROMINENT AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...AS THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND BERYL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A DROPSONDE IN THIS AREA ALSO MEASURED 47 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/8. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BERYL IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERLIES...WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY PATCHES OF AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED WEST OF THE STORM NOW BLOWING TOWARD IT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF BERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BEYOND THAT TIME. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...SOME SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY. IF BERYL MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... ADDITIONAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 73.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 72.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 40.6N 70.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 42.7N 67.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0600Z 45.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE |
