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| #986699 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 18.Oct.2019) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 90.0W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina by late Sunday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with weakening forecast after the system moves inland. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area by later today and this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the western peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
