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| #986720 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 18.Oct.2019) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery and ship and buoy data indicate that the circulation of the low pressure system has become better defined, and the disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nestor. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, with weakening forecast after Nestor moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area by later today and this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to western parts of the Florida peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
