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| #986745 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 18.Oct.2019) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...NESTOR MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 88.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to west of Navarre, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area this evening, and continue through early Saturday. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
