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| #98692 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 20.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO... QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 38.8N 72.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL |
