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| #987693 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 25.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is classified a tropical storm. However, a larger look at the east Atlantic reveals that Pablo is a tiny feature within a broad extratropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt, which is based on a recent ASCAT-C overpass that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center. It should be noted that a much larger area of winds of about the same strength, associated with the parent extratropical low, exist to the north and west of Pablo. The small tropical storm is moving east-southeastward at 8 kt as the overall trough continues to dig in that direction. A turn to the east should occur by early Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion by Saturday night, taking the cyclone across the Azores. By the end of the weekend and early next week, a slower northward motion seems likely before the storm is absorbed by another extratropical low to its west. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Pablo could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it remains in unstable conditions and over waters that should support some convection. However, the system is expected to move over sharply colder waters Saturday night and Sunday, and that should cause Pablo to lose its tropical characteristics. The models show the extratropical low dissipating or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 35.5N 31.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 35.6N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 37.7N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 41.2N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0000Z 44.0N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 47.3N 20.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
