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| #98782 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 20.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 56 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS...THESE WINDS MOST LIKELY ARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND IS BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS TYPICAL OF CYCLONES MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BERYL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND EASTERN CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH SOUTHEASTERN OF CAPE COD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 39.6N 72.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/0600Z 46.0N 61.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT |
