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| #9973 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 24.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964 MB. EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95 KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS UNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW AND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.5N 74.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.2N 79.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 29/0000Z 37.5N 75.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 30/0000Z 42.5N 66.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER |
