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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1228187 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1019 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold front moves across the area. - Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening. - Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Late morning sfc analysis shows a warm front well N of the area over New England, with a trailing cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes southwestward through the Appalachians and Mid-Deep South and TN Valley. An area of pre-frontal showers/light rain associated with a leading shortwave are moving through the area as of this writing. The coverage of precip should remain highest across the N and NW where likely- categorical PoPs are in place through the morning. Precip tapers off briefly behind the shortwave with some partial clearing expected this afternoon (best chance across W portions of the FA) as high temps rise into the lower 80s. Any clearing will help boost instability. Confidence is high in scattered thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the cold front his afternoon. While storms could occur across most of the FA, the highest confidence remains generally E of I-95 where 60-80% PoPs reside. Additionally, there could be several rounds of storms. Storms likely congeal into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening, quickly pushing offshore or south of the area by late evening. The environment still looks to be characterized by MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg (SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and 25-30 kt of 0-6km shear. Decent low-level lapse rates and seasonally high moisture (dew points in the mid 60s) should support a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the primary hazard. Small hail to marginally severe hail (up to the size of quarters) is possible, but should isolated given bowing line segments should be the primary convective mode and mid-level lapse rates are poor (6 C/km or less). The entire FA remains under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms this afternoon into this evening. Additionally, gusty SW winds are possible outside of any convection today with gusts up to 25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore possible. Skies clear tonight behind the storms and cold front passage as cooler, drier air moves in. A brief period of breezy NNW winds is possible tonight behind the cold front with gusts up to 25 mph possible (up to 30 mph possible along the coast and across the Eastern Shore). Lows tonight in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier weather returns early this week. Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sun with highs in the lower 70s (upper 60s across the Eastern Shore) expected. Temps moderate some on Mon with highs in the mid 70s for most. Lows in the mid 40s inland (mid 50s along the coast) Sun night and upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night are expected. Additionally, Sun will be breezy behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to ~20-25 mph inland and 30-35 across the Eastern Shore. High pressure builds in Mon with light winds and clear skies. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected this week with highs well above normal most days. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week before a trough approaches from the W on Fri. At the surface, high pressure slides offshore Tue. This will allow for a warmup with well above normal temps expected through the week. Highs in the low-mid 80s Tue, mid-upper 80s Wed, 70s NE to mid 80s SW Thu, and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for a slower/weaker frontal passage with the front now potentially stalling near/over the local area Wed evening before lifting back N as a warm front on Thu. As such temps Thu remain uncertain (depending on how far S the front reaches Wed night and how quickly it lifts N on Thu). For now, the NBM has highs in the mid 60s along the MD coast and upper 70s to the Northern Neck with 80s farther SW. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings both ahead of/along the cold front on Wed and with the front as it lifts N as a warm front on Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Fri underneath a large trough. As such, additional scattered showers/storms are possible Fri afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... A brief period of MVFR CIGs is possible from now through ~16-17z across all of the local terminals. CIGs improve to VFR from S to N later this morning. Scattered showers and a few embedded storms are expected to move across portions of the area this morning into early this afternoon. Additional scattered storms are likely to develop along and just ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into early this evening, potentially developing into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening. Locally strong winds and lightning are possible in any storms. The timing is still a bit uncertain, however, the best chance for storms is between 20-00z at RIC/SBY, 21-02z at PHF, and 00-03z at ORF/ECG. Showers and storms taper off from NW to SE behind the cold front this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Otherwise, SSW winds were around 10 kt early this morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds likely overnight. Outlook: Becoming dry and VFR tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected today with south to southwest winds. Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could necessitate SMWs during the afternoon and evening. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt tonight into early Sunday behind a cold front. - SCAs are in effect for all marine zones starting either this morning or late this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Early this morning, deepening low pressure is tracking across the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure now well offshore. The trailing cold front is approaching the Appalachians at this hour and will continue to move toward the waters today. Winds have become S- SSW and have increased to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. SCAs remain in effect starting now for the bay, James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island (due to seas that are expected to increase this morning). SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal winds starting tonight. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by 6-7 AM...and am still expecting a slight decrease in wind speeds (back to ~15 kt) this afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters tonight. Tstms are possible from 3-11 PM along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to 2-6C) is progged to quickly cross the waters between 8 PM- midnight. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours with even the 00z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts remain 20-30% north and around 10-15% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by Sunday evening. While there will be an additional weak push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past 4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N are expected today. Seas build to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-637- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635-636-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228168 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold front moves across the area. - Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening. - Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Early morning surface analysis depicted a warm front N of the local area with scattered showers moving across mainly W portions of the FA. Temps as of 640 AM were generally in the mid-upper 60s. An elongated shortwave trough moves into the area later this morning into early this afternoon. The associated height falls will allow for scattered showers (and perhaps a few embedded storms) to move in from the W later this morning. The highest chance for rain is generally N of US-460 this morning (50-60% PoPs). Convection tapers off briefly behind the shortwave with some partial clearing expected this afternoon (best chance across W portions of the FA) as high temps rise into the lower 80s. Any clearing will help boost instability. Confidence has increased in the chance for afternoon development of scattered thunderstorms today ahead of and along an approaching cold front. While scattered storms could occur across most of the FA, the highest confidence remains generally E of I-95 where 60-80% PoPs reside. Additionally, there could be several rounds of storms. Storms likely congeal into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening, quickly pushing offshore by late evening. 00z CAMs have come into better agreement on the overall setup and now show afternoon MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg (SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and 25-30 kt of 0-6km shear. Decent low-level lapse rates and seasonally high moisture (dew points in the mid 60s) should support a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the primary hazard. Small hail is also possible, but should remain below severe criteria given bowing line segments and weak mid- level lapse rates. As such, SPC has placed the entire FA under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms this afternoon into this evening. Additionally, gusty SW winds are possible outside of any convection today with gusts up to 25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore possible. Skies clear tonight behind the storms and cold front passage as cooler, drier air moves in. A brief period of breezy NNW winds is possible tonight behind the cold front with gusts up to 25 mph possible (up to 30 mph possible along the coast and across the Eastern Shore). Lows tonight in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier weather returns early this week. Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sun with highs in the lower 70s (upper 60s across the Eastern Shore) expected. Temps moderate some on Mon with highs in the mid 70s for most. Lows in the mid 40s inland (mid 50s along the coast) Sun night and upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night are expected. Additionally, Sun will be breezy behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to ~20-25 mph inland and 30-35 across the Eastern Shore. High pressure builds in Mon with light winds and clear skies. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected this week with highs well above normal most days. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week before a trough approaches from the W on Fri. At the surface, high pressure slides offshore Tue. This will allow for a warmup with well above normal temps expected through the week. Highs in the low-mid 80s Tue, mid-upper 80s Wed, 70s NE to mid 80s SW Thu, and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for a slower/weaker frontal passage with the front now potentially stalling near/over the local area Wed evening before lifting back N as a warm front on Thu. As such temps Thu remain uncertain (depending on how far S the front reaches Wed night and how quickly it lifts N on Thu). For now, the NBM has highs in the mid 60s along the MD coast and upper 70s to the Northern Neck with 80s farther SW. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings both ahead of/along the cold front on Wed and with the front as it lifts N as a warm front on Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Fri underneath a large trough. As such, additional scattered showers/storms are possible Fri afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... A brief period of MVFR CIGs is possible from now through ~16-17z across all of the local terminals. CIGs improve to VFR from S to N later this morning. Scattered showers and a few embedded storms are expected to move across portions of the area this morning into early this afternoon. Additional scattered storms are likely to develop along and just ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into early this evening, potentially developing into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening. Locally strong winds and lightning are possible in any storms. The timing is still a bit uncertain, however, the best chance for storms is between 20-00z at RIC/SBY, 21-02z at PHF, and 00-03z at ORF/ECG. Showers and storms taper off from NW to SE behind the cold front this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Otherwise, SSW winds were around 10 kt early this morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds likely overnight. Outlook: Becoming dry and VFR tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected today with south to southwest winds. Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could necessitate SMWs during the afternoon and evening. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt tonight into early Sunday behind a cold front. - SCAs are in effect for all marine zones starting either this morning or late this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Early this morning, deepening low pressure is tracking across the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure now well offshore. The trailing cold front is approaching the Appalachians at this hour and will continue to move toward the waters today. Winds have become S- SSW and have increased to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. SCAs remain in effect starting now for the bay, James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island (due to seas that are expected to increase this morning). SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal winds starting tonight. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by 6-7 AM...and am still expecting a slight decrease in wind speeds (back to ~15 kt) this afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters tonight. Tstms are possible from 3-11 PM along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to 2-6C) is progged to quickly cross the waters between 8 PM- midnight. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours with even the 00z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts remain 20-30% north and around 10-15% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by Sunday evening. While there will be an additional weak push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past 4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N are expected today. Seas build to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-637- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635-636-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228157 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold front moves across the area. - Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening. - Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Early morning surface analysis depicted a warm front N of the local area with mainly isolated showers across the area (locally scattered showers across N portions of the FA). Temps as of 310 AM were generally in the mid (locally upper) 60s. Lows this morning remain mild in the mid 60s. An elongated shortwave trough moves into the area later this morning into early this afternoon. The associated height falls will allow for scattered showers (and perhaps a few embedded storms) to move in from the W later this morning. The highest chance for rain is generally N of I-64 this morning (50-60% PoPs). Convection tapers off briefly behind the shortwave with some partial clearing expected this afternoon (best chance across W portions of the FA) as high temps rise into the lower 80s. Any clearing will help boost instability. Confidence has increased in the chance for afternoon development of scattered thunderstorms today ahead of and along an approaching cold front. While scattered storms could occur across most of the FA, the highest confidence remains generally E of I-95 where 60-80% PoPs reside. Additionally, there could be several rounds of storms. Storms likely congeal into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening, quickly pushing offshore by late evening. 00z CAMs have come into better agreement on the overall setup and now show afternoon MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg (highest across the Piedmont where more clearing is expected) and 25-30 kt of 0-6km shear. Decent low-level lapse rates and seasonally high moisture (dew points in the mid 60s) should support a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the primary hazard. Small hail is also possible, but should remain below severe criteria given bowing line segments and weak mid-level lapse rates. As such, SPC has placed the entire FA under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms this afternoon into this evening. Additionally, gusty SW winds are possible outside of any convection today with gusts up to 25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore possible. Skies clear tonight behind the storms and cold front passage as cooler, drier air moves in. A brief period of breezy NNW winds is possible tonight behind the cold front with gusts up to 25 mph possible (up to 30 mph possible along the coast and across the Eastern Shore). Lows tonight in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier weather returns early this week. Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sun with highs in the lower 70s (upper 60s across the Eastern Shore) expected. Temps moderate some on Mon with highs in the mid 70s for most. Lows in the mid 40s inland (mid 50s along the coast) Sun night and upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night are expected. Additionally, Sun will be breezy behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to ~20-25 mph inland and 30-35 across the Eastern Shore. High pressure builds in Mon with light winds and clear skies. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected this week with highs well above normal most days. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week before a trough approaches from the W on Fri. At the surface, high pressure slides offshore Tue. This will allow for a warmup with well above normal temps expected through the week. Highs in the low-mid 80s Tue, mid-upper 80s Wed, 70s NE to mid 80s SW Thu, and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for a slower/weaker frontal passage with the front now potentially stalling near/over the local area Wed evening before lifting back N as a warm front on Thu. As such temps Thu remain uncertain (depending on how far S the front reaches Wed night and how quickly it lifts N on Thu). For now, the NBM has highs in the mid 60s along the MD coast and upper 70s to the Northern Neck with 80s farther SW. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings both ahead of/along the cold front on Wed and with the front as it lifts N as a warm front on Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Fri underneath a large trough. As such, additional scattered showers/storms are possible Fri afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible across the area into this morning, but confidence in any direct impact to a given TAF site is low. However, SBY has the best near-term chance at a passing shower within the next few hours. As such, have added a VCSH to the TAF there. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop around 12z and should lift to VFR by ~16-17z. Showers and a few embedded storms are expected to move across portions of the area from mid-late morning into early this afternoon. Additional scattered storms are likely to develop along and just ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into early this evening, potentially developing into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening. Locally strong winds and lightning are possible in any storms. The timing is still a bit uncertain, however, the best chance for storms is between 20-00z at RIC/SBY, 21-02z at PHF, and 00-03z at ORF/ECG. Showers and storms taper off from NW to SE behind the cold front this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Otherwise, SSW winds were around 10 kt early this morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds likely overnight. Outlook: Becoming dry and VFR tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected today with south to southwest winds. Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could necessitate SMWs during the afternoon and evening. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt tonight into early Sunday behind a cold front. - SCAs are in effect for all marine zones starting either this morning or late this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Early this morning, deepening low pressure is tracking across the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure now well offshore. The trailing cold front is approaching the Appalachians at this hour and will continue to move toward the waters today. Winds have become S- SSW and have increased to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. SCAs remain in effect starting now for the bay, James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island (due to seas that are expected to increase this morning). SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal winds starting tonight. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by 6-7 AM...and am still expecting a slight decrease in wind speeds (back to ~15 kt) this afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters tonight. Tstms are possible from 3-11 PM along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to 2-6C) is progged to quickly cross the waters between 8 PM- midnight. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours with even the 00z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts remain 20-30% north and around 10-15% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by Sunday evening. While there will be an additional weak push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past 4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N are expected today. Seas build to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-637- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635-636-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228145 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north across the area tonight, followed by a cold front Saturday. This will result in a period of unsettled weather today through Saturday. Drier and cooler weather return for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Another cold front approaches the region by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers continue into this morning. Early morning surface analysis depicted a warm front N of the local area with mainly isolated showers across the area (locally scattered showers approaching the Eastern Shore). Temps as of 210 AM were generally in the mid-upper 60s. Gradual height falls will overspread the area ahead of mid-level troughing over the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. This will result in isolated to scattered showers continuing into this morning. QPF overnight will be minimal for most locations, but a few locally higher amounts are possible. Very mild early this morning with lows in the low- mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are likely on Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. A few storms could be on the strong to severe side. - Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday behind the cold front. Warming up a few degrees for Monday. On Saturday, a cold front will approach the area from the NW as low pressure moves through the eastern Great Lakes into the New England states. The cold front is expected to cross through our CWA in the late afternoon across the N and in the evening or early parts of Saturday night across the S. Still looking like two rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday: one in morning associated with prior-day activity and the leading shortwave trough, and the second with the front itself. There is some uncertainty in how long the morning activity persists, which could have some impact on afternoon destabilization. Additionally, there is also some potential for this initial activity to intensify some if it moves eastward into SE VA during peak heating. This solution is shown in some of the experiment MPAS CAMs. Attention then turns to likely convective development across northern half of the area as the cold front drops through. This front is also likely to move through during peak heating and guidance indicates moderate instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg) developing most of the area during the afternoon. A belt of slightly stronger winds aloft will also slide through these areas, creating some higher shear values (around 30 kt) from the Northern Neck onto the MD Eastern Shore. Clusters of thunderstorms are likely to develop and move rather quickly S and SE in the afternoon and evening. The front and shear values should allow for some storm organization and a few strong to severe storms are expected given steep low-level lapse rates and some DCAPE. This would tend to favor a strong wind gust threat. The hail threat is rather low given weaker deep-layer shear and meager mid-level lapse rates. After collaborating with SPC, the decision was made to hold off on introducing a marginal risk area given potential uncertainties from the aforementioned morning convection. Still, a marginal risk may eventually be introduced on the Day 1 outlook. While locally heavy rainfall is also expected in any storm, a widespread flooding threat is not anticipated given quick storm motions and dry antecedent conditions. For temperatures, warming into the lower 80s for most of VA and NC, with upper 70s on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows in the mid 40s N to mid 50s S. Cooler Sunday with decent cold advection behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs in the lower 70s are expected for most of the area under a sunny sky. Warming up a few degrees into the mid 70s Monday as the high become centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas and ridging expands across the eastern CONUS aloft. Lows Sunday night in the mid 40s inland and low- mid 50s at the immediate coast with a persistent northerly wind. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures Monday, with well above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. - Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, with possibly more organized storms by Friday. A tall ridge aloft builds across the East Coast into Tuesday before a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and Canada by midweek. At the surface, high pressure remains over the area Monday before sliding SE offshore Tuesday. This will allow for a significant warmup into the mid 80s Tuesday. The warmest day is expected Wednesday with temps well into the mid- upper 80s, with a few areas possibly touching 90-91F. A cold front approaches the area from the N Wednesday and Wednesday night allowing for cooler temps with highs in the low- mid 70s NE to mid 80s SW Thursday. Will also need to watch if an earlier passage of this front could keep Wednesday a tad cooler than forecast (as suggested by the 25/04 ECMWF). Additionally, scattered (mainly diurnal showers and storms) are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Overnight lows generally fall into the 60s. By the end of the week, another cold front looks to push through the region. Model guidance depicts strengthening 500 mb flow aloft and increasing deep-layer shear, in addition to sufficient instability. If the frontal timing is favorable during the afternoon and evening Friday, some threat of organized strong- severe storms could materialize. This potential is indicated across various machine learning aids. However, confidence is low at this time range and much can change. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible across the area into this morning, but confidence in any direct impact to a given TAF site is low. However, SBY has the best near-term chance at a passing shower within the next few hours. As such, have added a VCSH to the TAF there. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop around 12z and should lift to VFR by ~16-17z. Showers and a few embedded storms are expected to move across portions of the area from mid-late morning into early this afternoon. Additional scattered storms are likely to develop along and just ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into early this evening, potentially developing into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening. Locally strong winds and lightning are possible in any storms. The timing is still a bit uncertain, however, the best chance for storms is between 20-00z at RIC/SBY, 21-02z at PHF, and 00-03z at ORF/ECG. Showers and storms taper off from NW to SE behind the cold front this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Otherwise, SSW winds were around 10 kt early this morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds likely overnight. Outlook: Becoming dry and VFR tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Winds increase ahead of a cold front tonight into Saturday with low-end Small Craft conditions expected. High end Small Craft Advisory are likely Saturday night into early Sunday behind that cold front. - SCAs are in effect for all marine zones starting either tonight or Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. This afternoon, winds are generally out of the E to SE and ~10 kt. Winds gradually increase this afternoon into this evening (highest across the southern Chesapeake Bay), becoming southerly tonight. A cold front approaches from the NW later this evening-tonight as low pressure tracks well N/NW of the area. With the pressure gradient tightening, winds increase to 15-20 kt (with gusts of 20-25 kt). Also, seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft N/3-4 ft S by late tonight. SCAs start at 08z/4 AM tonight for the bay, James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island. SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal winds starting Saturday night. Still expect a brief lull in the winds Saturday afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters Saturday night. Tstms are possible late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to 3-6C) is progged to cross the waters during the first part of Saturday night. While the 12z/25 guidance continues to back off by a couple of knots with respect to winds, still expecting solid SCA conditions for 6-12 hours following the FROPA. NNW winds will average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. Will note that the stronger (~35-40 kt) 900-925mb winds remain just to our north Sunday AM as per the NAM/GFS. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts have decreased a bit, and are 20-30% north and around 10% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, followed by much lighter winds Sunday night into the first half of next week. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft persist today. Seas build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters by late tonight/Saturday with 3-4 ft seas farther south. Seas build further to 4-6 ft Sunday morning behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634- 637-638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635-636-654-656-658. && $$ |
