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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1228182 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 932 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today with an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late next week. && .UPDATE... Weak convection moving into the forecast area from the west is associated with a pre-frontal trough. Although the current activity is weak, barely showers at this point, the trough and associated moisture is moving toward an area with clear skies, and the expectation that heating will push SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg. This will set the stage for increased strength and coverage of storms in the afternoon. Overall forecast thinking has not changed, but adjustments were made based on latest high resolution guidance and current conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the southern Appalachians as per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with decaying convection in the zone of PVA just ahead of its axis. Outflow has raced out of the earlier convective line and should slide through the CWA before sunrise, with a temporary push of westerly flow behind the boundary. Some warming of air temps is being observed upstream (e.g., KCAE) as increased winds promote mixing of an otherwise stably-stratified nocturnal boundary layer, and this should be the same effect observed across the area. During the day, the mid-level shortwave trough will continue eastward and its axis is progged to pass overhead this afternoon. Near the surface, a pre-frontal trough associated with the PVA aloft may flare up with isolated to scattered convection late this morning as it encounters a diurnally destabilizing air mass near and west of I-95, although how much instability manages to develop will be affected by debris clouds behind the earlier outflow boundary. This surface trough will continue eastward to the coast, with scattered convection likely to flare up along it as SBCAPE reaches the 1000- 2000 J/kg range amidst little to no capping inversion. With weak to modest effective shear around 15-25 kts, convection should struggle to organize, but a couple line segments with swaths of gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for isolated storms which could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60mph as well as small hail. After the daytime convection wanes with the loss of heating, another line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the actual cold front dropping southeastward. Of course, if prior convective activity uses up the instability over our area, then no more than some decaying showers should make it into the area, but this will need to be monitored. Furthermore, given that the timing of this front should be multiple hours after dark, any thunderstorms along the front across central NC should be waning on its way into the CWA anyway as instability weakens due to nocturnal cooling. Behind the front, a solid push of gusty northerly winds can be expected with low temps dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather and somewhat cooler temps return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned cold front pushes offshore and sfc high pressure builds in behind it. High temps Sunday in the mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Sunday night will be the coolest night of next week with low temps around 50 inland and mid 50s at the coast, with light winds and a mostly clear sky. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will be characterized by warming temps and a trend towards wetter conditions later in the week. Upr-level ridging over the eastern CONUS will allow for dry weather Monday through Wednesday, along with temps rising to above normal starting Tuesday...highs over 80 inland. Further warming for Wednesday (highs potentially reaching 90 in the warmest spots) with the ridge axis over the area and breezy SW winds. Continued warm Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s, but with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy embedded in the SW flow aloft traverses the area while deep-layer moisture slightly increases. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A predominantly VFR period carries high confidence with temporary restrictions due to scattered convection carrying low to moderate confidence as a storm would need to pass over a terminal to cause any issues. South-southwesterly winds will become gusty this morning near the coast and inland after morning clouds move east. An approaching cold front and a pre- frontal trough will bring the next chances for convection from around midday through the evening, but coverage is in question, and thus, PROB30 groups are maintained. A band of decaying convection may drop down from the north and affect the NC terminals before the end of the period as the cold front drops southeastward. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate the period under high pressure. After the high moves offshore on Tuesday, moisture return will bring the potential for early morning mist/low stratus on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Steady south-southwesterly winds will continue today into tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A wave of showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the coastal waters this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough pushes through during the day, with additional showers possible overnight as the cold front drops southeastward. This front will bring a sharp wind shift to northerly in its wake as cooler and drier air filter in late in the night. Wave heights around 2-3 ft today into tonight will increase late in the night as winds pick up behind the front. The wave spectrum will be a combination of 2-3 ft southeasterly swells with a period around 9 sec with 2-3 ft southerly wind waves developing this afternoon and waning overnight. Sunday through Wednesday...The CAA following the cold fropa tonight is not strong enough for SCA conditions Sunday, but expect a brief period of 15-20 kt northerly winds Sunday morning with 3-4 ft seas. Generally benign marine conditions thereafter through mid week as sfc high pressure builds over the waters. With the high well offshore on Wednesday will see a slight uptick in winds (to ~15 kt out of the SSW) as the pressure gradient increases, but no headlines are anticipated. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228172 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 704 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today with an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes are needed to the ongoing forecast with this update. Updated TAF discussion is below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the southern Appalachians as per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with decaying convection in the zone of PVA just ahead of its axis. Outflow has raced out of the earlier convective line and should slide through the CWA before sunrise, with a temporary push of westerly flow behind the boundary. Some warming of air temps is being observed upstream (e.g., KCAE) as increased winds promote mixing of an otherwise stably-stratified nocturnal boundary layer, and this should be the same effect observed across the area. During the day, the mid-level shortwave trough will continue eastward and its axis is progged to pass overhead this afternoon. Near the surface, a pre-frontal trough associated with the PVA aloft may flare up with isolated to scattered convection late this morning as it encounters a diurnally destabilizing air mass near and west of I-95, although how much instability manages to develop will be affected by debris clouds behind the earlier outflow boundary. This surface trough will continue eastward to the coast, with scattered convection likely to flare up along it as SBCAPE reaches the 1000- 2000 J/kg range amidst little to no capping inversion. With weak to modest effective shear around 15-25 kts, convection should struggle to organize, but a couple line segments with swaths of gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for isolated storms which could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60mph as well as small hail. After the daytime convection wanes with the loss of heating, another line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the actual cold front dropping southeastward. Of course, if prior convective activity uses up the instability over our area, then no more than some decaying showers should make it into the area, but this will need to be monitored. Furthermore, given that the timing of this front should be multiple hours after dark, any thunderstorms along the front across central NC should be waning on its way into the CWA anyway as instability weakens due to nocturnal cooling. Behind the front, a solid push of gusty northerly winds can be expected with low temps dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather and somewhat cooler temps return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned cold front pushes offshore and sfc high pressure builds in behind it. High temps Sunday in the mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Sunday night will be the coolest night of next week with low temps around 50 inland and mid 50s at the coast, with light winds and a mostly clear sky. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will be characterized by warming temps and a trend towards wetter conditions later in the week. Upr-level ridging over the eastern CONUS will allow for dry weather Monday through Wednesday, along with temps rising to above normal starting Tuesday...highs over 80 inland. Further warming for Wednesday (highs potentially reaching 90 in the warmest spots) with the ridge axis over the area and breezy SW winds. Continued warm Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s, but with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy embedded in the SW flow aloft traverses the area while deep-layer moisture slightly increases. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A predominantly VFR period carries high confidence with temporary restrictions due to scattered convection carrying low to moderate confidence as a storm would need to pass over a terminal to cause any issues. South-southwesterly winds will become gusty this morning near the coast and inland after morning clouds move east. An approaching cold front and a pre- frontal trough will bring the next chances for convection from around midday through the evening, but coverage is in question, and thus, PROB30 groups are maintained. A band of decaying convection may drop down from the north and affect the NC terminals before the end of the period as the cold front drops southeastward. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate the period under high pressure. After the high moves offshore on Tuesday, moisture return will bring the potential for early morning mist/low stratus on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Steady south-southwesterly winds will continue today into tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A wave of showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the coastal waters this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough pushes through during the day, with additional showers possible overnight as the cold front drops southeastward. This front will bring a sharp wind shift to northerly in its wake as cooler and drier air filter in late in the night. Wave heights around 2-3 ft today into tonight will increase late in the night as winds pick up behind the front. The wave spectrum will be a combination of 2-3 ft southeasterly swells with a period around 9 sec with 2-3 ft southerly wind waves developing this afternoon and waning overnight. Sunday through Wednesday...The CAA following the cold fropa tonight is not strong enough for SCA conditions Sunday, but expect a brief period of 15-20 kt northerly winds Sunday morning with 3-4 ft seas. Generally benign marine conditions thereafter through mid week as sfc high pressure builds over the waters. With the high well offshore on Wednesday will see a slight uptick in winds (to ~15 kt out of the SSW) as the pressure gradient increases, but no headlines are anticipated. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228155 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 402 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today with an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the southern Appalachians as per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with decaying convection in the zone of PVA just ahead of its axis. Outflow has raced out of the earlier convective line and should slide through the CWA before sunrise, with a temporary push of westerly flow behind the boundary. Some warming of air temps is being observed upstream (e.g., KCAE) as increased winds promote mixing of an otherwise stably-stratified nocturnal boundary layer, and this should be the same effect observed across the area. During the day, the mid-level shortwave trough will continue eastward and its axis is progged to pass overhead this afternoon. Near the surface, a pre-frontal trough associated with the PVA aloft may flare up with isolated to scattered convection late this morning as it encounters a diurnally destabilizing air mass near and west of I-95, although how much instability manages to develop will be affected by debris clouds behind the earlier outflow boundary. This surface trough will continue eastward to the coast, with scattered convection likely to flare up along it as SBCAPE reaches the 1000- 2000 J/kg range amidst little to no capping inversion. With weak to modest effective shear around 15-25 kts, convection should struggle to organize, but a couple line segments with swaths of gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for isolated storms which could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60mph as well as small hail. After the daytime convection wanes with the loss of heating, another line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the actual cold front dropping southeastward. Of course, if prior convective activity uses up the instability over our area, then no more than some decaying showers should make it into the area, but this will need to be monitored. Furthermore, given that the timing of this front should be multiple hours after dark, any thunderstorms along the front across central NC should be waning on its way into the CWA anyway as instability weakens due to nocturnal cooling. Behind the front, a solid push of gusty northerly winds can be expected with low temps dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather and somewhat cooler temps return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned cold front pushes offshore and sfc high pressure builds in behind it. High temps Sunday in the mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Sunday night will be the coolest night of next week with low temps around 50 inland and mid 50s at the coast, with light winds and a mostly clear sky. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will be characterized by warming temps and a trend towards wetter conditions later in the week. Upr-level ridging over the eastern CONUS will allow for dry weather Monday through Wednesday, along with temps rising to above normal starting Tuesday...highs over 80 inland. Further warming for Wednesday (highs potentially reaching 90 in the warmest spots) with the ridge axis over the area and breezy SW winds. Continued warm Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s, but with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy embedded in the SW flow aloft traverses the area while deep-layer moisture slightly increases. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A predominantly VFR period carries high confidence with temporary restrictions due to scattered convection carrying low to moderate confidence as a storm would need to pass over a terminal to cause any issues. Through the rest of the night, steady south-southwest winds should keep any mist at bay, even at KCRE. An approaching outflow boundary will cause a temporary westerly wind shift at KFLO and KLBT before daybreak and this may reach the coast before sunrise. After sunrise, the winds should tend to back towards south-southwesterly again. An approaching cold front and a pre-frontal trough will bring the next chances for convection from around midday through the evening, but coverage is in question, and thus, PROB30 groups are maintained. A band of decaying convection may drop down from the north and affect the NC terminals before the end of the period as the cold front drops southeastward. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate the period under high pressure. After the high moves offshore on Tuesday, moisture return will bring the potential for early morning mist/low stratus on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Steady south-southwesterly winds will continue today into tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A wave of showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the coastal waters this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough pushes through during the day, with additional showers possible overnight as the cold front drops southeastward. This front will bring a sharp wind shift to northerly in its wake as cooler and drier air filter in late in the night. Wave heights around 2-3 ft today into tonight will increase late in the night as winds pick up behind the front. The wave spectrum will be a combination of 2-3 ft southeasterly swells with a period around 9 sec with 2-3 ft southerly wind waves developing this afternoon and waning overnight. Sunday through Wednesday...The CAA following the cold fropa tonight is not strong enough for SCA conditions Sunday, but expect a brief period of 15-20 kt northerly winds Sunday morning with 3-4 ft seas. Generally benign marine conditions thereafter through mid week as sfc high pressure builds over the waters. With the high well offshore on Wednesday will see a slight uptick in winds (to ~15 kt out of the SSW) as the pressure gradient increases, but no headlines are anticipated. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228146 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 215 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches Saturday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the day. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures expected beginning Tuesday, with rain chances return late next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes to the ongoing forecast with this update. A decaying squall line can be seen across upstate SC with the outflow becoming increasingly dominant, leaving the convection behind. This will be an important factor in convective potential on Saturday. See updated TAF discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Thus far convection has struggled to develop. Not that shocking given the marginal environment and lack of strong triggers/convergence. Sea breeze has tried to generate some deeper convection, but what has developed has had trouble maintaining itself. Mid-level lapse rates are barely -6 C/km and there is no support aloft. If anything there is a bit of weak subsidence in the wake of a weak shortwave moving across eastern NC. This has really limited the potential for deeper updrafts despite SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Still think there will be some late afternoon and evening convection as the influence of the shortwave weakens a but, but the bulk of the region will remain dry heading into tonight. Pre-frontal trough approaches from the west after midnight with scattered convection ahead of it. Any activity will be weakening given decreasing instability. However, there does appear to be some weak PVA ahead of another weak shortwave. Heights will be falling as the 5h trough axis approaches and there is a little bit of divergence aloft ahead of the trough axis. Not expecting a lot in the way of coverage, but occasional nocturnal showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible across the forecast area overnight into early Sat morning. The biggest hurdle will be mid- level dry air and precipitable water right around climatology. Varying amounts of cloud cover and boundary layer mixing will keep lows 7-10 degrees above normal in most areas. Remains of the pre-frontal trough in the area Sat ahead of the more defined cold front expected late Sat. The front lags the 5h trough axis a bit with the prefrontal trough driving much of Sat`s convection. Early round of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm possible will be winding down during the late morning hours Sat, but think better chances will come in the afternoon. Height falls associated with the trough axis and diurnal heating will lead to decent mid-level lapse rates and moisture increases Sat with pwat rising above the 90th percentile. Expect to see good coverage of showers and thunderstorms for much of the forecast area. Far western areas may get enough mid-level dry air/post trough axis subsidence in the afternoon to limit or prevent a second round, but east of the I-95 corridor chances are better ahead of the cold front. Although the threat is limited cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts, if there is enough time to reset after the weaker, more sporadic morning activity. Temperatures above normal Sat ahead of the slow moving cold front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lingering storms will diminish quickly after sundown Saturday with loss of heating and NVA aloft. May see a few isolated showers early in the night before cold front moves across the area after midnight. Low temps will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s by Sunday morning. Dry weather returns Sunday as mid level ridge begins to build over the Southeast and surface high pressure ridges down from the north. Highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday afternoon with plenty of high clouds. Sunday night will be the coolest night of the forecast period with lows in the low 50s across NE SC and upper 40s/50 across SE NC. If skies clear out more than currently forecasted, low 40s may be possible in traditional cold spots. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Quiet weather remains in the forecast for the start of the work week thanks to mid level ridge over the area providing dry air and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure overhead Monday shifts offshore Tuesday, combining with increasing 850mb temps to kick off a warming trend beginning Tuesday. Near normal temps Monday rise to near 90F Wednesday, with well above normal temps possibly lingering through the end of the week. A front is progged to move across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday, stalling north of our area. Have maintained slight pops across northern counties of CWA for Wednesday afternoon/evening, but lingering mid level dry air and subsidence will make it difficult for anything to development. Rain chances look a bit better on Thursday, and even more so on Friday, as mid level ridge moves off the coast and PWATs increase to ~1.5", with the next front approaching the area late Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A predominantly VFR period carries high confidence with temporary restrictions due to scattered convection carrying low to moderate confidence as a storm would need to pass over a terminal to cause any issues. Through the rest of the night, steady south-southwest winds should keep any mist at bay, even at KCRE. An approaching outflow boundary will cause a temporary westerly wind shift at KFLO and KLBT before daybreak and this may reach the coast before sunrise. After sunrise, the winds should tend to back towards south-southwesterly again. An approaching cold front and a pre-frontal trough will bring the next chances for convection from around midday through the evening, but coverage is in question, and thus, PROB30 groups are maintained. A band of decaying convection may drop down from the north and affect the NC terminals before the end of the period as the cold front drops southeastward. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate the period under high pressure. After the high moves offshore on Tuesday, moisture return will bring the potential for early morning mist/low stratus on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...South to southwest flow continues across the waters through Sat with Bermuda High offshore and slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Gradient becomes a little more defined Sat with speeds increasing from around 10 kt overnight to a solid 15 kt with potential for 15-20 kt later Sat. No expectation of any headlines, but the increase in winds and seas later Sat will start to make conditions less "friendly". Seas 2-3 ft through tonight will build to 3-4 ft later Sat with a southerly wind wave(2-3 ft at 4 sec) becoming dominant later in the day. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southwest winds early Saturday night will turn northerly by Sunday morning as a cold front moves across the coastal waters. Wind speeds will be around 15-20 kt for a brief period Sunday morning. North- northeast winds prevail through midday Monday before onshore flow develops as high pressure moves across to the north. South- southwest winds dominates midday Tuesday through late week as high pressure shifts offshore. Seas 3-4 ft Saturday night and Sunday, mix of SE swell and S then N wind wave, lowers to 2-3 ft for Sunday night through Wednesday, primarily as an E swell with wind wave mixed in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
