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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1216604 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 923 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Updates so far this evening have been almost continuous with respect to primarily temps, POPs, weather/Ptype, and snow/ice accumulations as we continue to monitor trends and observations/reports closely around the region. Temps have overall been coming down a bit faster than expected, especially near the I-10 corridor and out towards coastal Duval where onset of rain mixing with ice pellets/freezing rain has been bumped up (a few sites in Duval County briefly reported snow earlier, though suspect this may have been just a brief snow/sleet mix along with consistent rain). Some rather impressive reflectivity and snowfall reports/obs across far interior southeast GA also prompted a bump up in expected snowfall amounts mostly north and west of US 84, where a general 2-4" is expected except for locally higher amounts possible where any bands develop/train over certain areas. Ice accumulations are generally unchanged, with highest totals in the 0.1-0.25" range expected across the western half of Duval County and I-10 corridor, with a sharp cut off further south and east. Still expecting at least a light glaze of freezing rain as far south of northern Marion County, northwest Putnam County, and western St. Johns County towards morning as precip gets close to tapering off. Some sleet/snow could also mix in for these areas at times as well, though accumulation are expected to be very limited (under 0.5") with primarily cold plain rain expected. Stay tuned for updates later tonight and through the morning hours as this rare and dynamic situation continues to unfold. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dew points in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-3 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Wednesday... Dangerous travel conditions will linger through the day on Wednesday, with any ice accumulation having a hard time thawing. Most areas in inland SE GA will not hit 40 degrees despite mostly sunny skies, with most of northeast Florida only reaching the lower to upper 40s. Low temperatures will drop into the 20s for all of SE GA, and most of inland NE FL, with only areas along and east of the St. Johns river basin, and Marion county, staying above freezing. Wind chills will likely fall into the upper teens to 20s for most of the area, and Cold Weather Advisories may be necessary for some locations. There is a slight (20-30%) chance of precipitation Wednesday night for the NE FL coast, for now that area coincides with above-freezing temperatures. Thursday... Another cold day forecast, with high temperatures only in the 40s other than a few locations in Flagler and Marion reaching the low 50s. Showers remain possible through the day for NE FL and the SE GA coast, with things tapering off around sunset before yet another freezing night. Lows will be in the 20s for SE GA and most of NE FL, with high potential for a hard freeze and Cold Weather Advisories.&& .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 It will stay chilly on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 40s to 50s across the area, with luckily no precipitation chances. Friday night will be brutally cold, with low temperatures dropping down into the low 20s across inland SE GA, mid to upper 20s across the SE GA coast and inland NE FL, and low 30s near the St. Johns river basin and NE FL coast. These lows promote hard freeze conditions for most inland areas, but with calm winds, wind chills will hover just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria for SE GA at this time, however inland NE FL is forecast to fall below the threshold of 25 degree wind chills. Temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday night, but it is still likely to fall below freezing for inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley. Highs Sunday and Monday will finally reach the 60s, with low temperatures staying above freezing area-wide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Restrictions in stratus are expected throughout this TAF period. Precipitation will result in visibility restrictions through the night into Wednesday morning. The lowest restrictions are expected in any snow showers. A wintry mix of precipitation types is expected throughout the night for all sites, but KSGJ. The wintry mix is only expected to affect KSGJ for a few hours around sunrise Wednesday. The precipitation is expected to move southeast of area TAF sites a few hours after sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will be elevated and gusty especially at the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough developing over the coastal waters bring increasing chances for precipitation for area waters throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure will be situated to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents: High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 23 33 21 39 / 100 0 10 0 SSI 26 38 30 43 / 100 40 10 10 JAX 25 40 30 47 / 90 40 10 20 SGJ 30 46 38 50 / 90 80 20 30 GNV 25 42 32 47 / 90 40 10 20 OCF 29 48 34 51 / 90 50 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325- 422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220- 225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030- 031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137-140-220-225-232-236- 237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ125-133-138. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1216584 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 PM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 610 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dew points in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-3 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Wednesday... Dangerous travel conditions will linger through the day on Wednesday, with any ice accumulation having a hard time thawing. Most areas in inland SE GA will not hit 40 degrees despite mostly sunny skies, with most of northeast Florida only reaching the lower to upper 40s. Low temperatures will drop into the 20s for all of SE GA, and most of inland NE FL, with only areas along and east of the St. Johns river basin, and Marion county, staying above freezing. Wind chills will likely fall into the upper teens to 20s for most of the area, and Cold Weather Advisories may be necessary for some locations. There is a slight (20-30%) chance of precipitation Wednesday night for the NE FL coast, for now that area coincides with above-freezing temperatures. Thursday... Another cold day forecast, with high temperatures only in the 40s other than a few locations in Flagler and Marion reaching the low 50s. Showers remain possible through the day for NE FL and the SE GA coast, with things tapering off around sunset before yet another freezing night. Lows will be in the 20s for SE GA and most of NE FL, with high potential for a hard freeze and Cold Weather Advisories.&& .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 It will stay chilly on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 40s to 50s across the area, with luckily no precipitation chances. Friday night will be brutally cold, with low temperatures dropping down into the low 20s across inland SE GA, mid to upper 20s across the SE GA coast and inland NE FL, and low 30s near the St. Johns river basin and NE FL coast. These lows promote hard freeze conditions for most inland areas, but with calm winds, wind chills will hover just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria for SE GA at this time, however inland NE FL is forecast to fall below the threshold of 25 degree wind chills. Temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday night, but it is still likely to fall below freezing for inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley. Highs Sunday and Monday will finally reach the 60s, with low temperatures staying above freezing area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 It will stay chilly on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 40s to 50s across the area, with luckily no precipitation chances. Friday night will be brutally cold, with low temperatures dropping down into the low 20s across inland SE GA, mid to upper 20s across the SE GA coast and inland NE FL, and low 30s near the St. Johns river basin and NE FL coast. These lows promote hard freeze conditions for most inland areas, but with calm winds, wind chills will hover just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria for SE GA at this time, however inland NE FL is forecast to fall below the threshold of 25 degree wind chills. Temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday night, but it is still likely to fall below freezing for inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley. Highs Sunday and Monday will finally reach the 60s, with low temperatures staying above freezing area-wide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Restrictions in stratus are expected throughout this TAF period. Precipitation will result in visibility restrictions through the night into Wednesday morning. The lowest restrictions are expected in any snow showers. A wintry mix of precipitation types is expected throughout the night for all sites, but KSGJ. The wintry mix is only expected to affect KSGJ for a few hours around sunrise Wednesday. The precipition is expected to move southeast of area TAF sites a few hours after sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will be elevated and gusty especially at the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough developing over the coastal waters bring increasing chances for precipitation for area waters throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure will be situated to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents: High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 23 34 21 39 / 100 0 10 0 SSI 27 39 30 43 / 100 20 10 10 JAX 26 39 30 47 / 100 20 10 20 SGJ 31 46 38 50 / 100 50 20 30 GNV 26 42 32 47 / 100 20 10 20 OCF 30 47 34 51 / 100 30 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325- 422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124- 125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340- 422-425-522. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ125-133-138. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165- 166-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1216566 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 221 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dew points in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-3 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Wednesday... Dangerous travel conditions will linger through the day on Wednesday, with any ice accumulation having a hard time thawing. Most areas in inland SE GA will not hit 40 degrees despite mostly sunny skies, with most of northeast Florida only reaching the lower to upper 40s. Low temperatures will drop into the 20s for all of SE GA, and most of inland NE FL, with only areas along and east of the St. Johns river basin, and Marion county, staying above freezing. Wind chills will likely fall into the upper teens to 20s for most of the area, and Cold Weather Advisories may be necessary for some locations. There is a slight (20-30%) chance of precipitation Wednesday night for the NE FL coast, for now that area coincides with above-freezing temperatures. Thursday... Another cold day forecast, with high temperatures only in the 40s other than a few locations in Flagler and Marion reaching the low 50s. Showers remain possible through the day for NE FL and the SE GA coast, with things tapering off around sunset before yet another freezing night. Lows will be in the 20s for SE GA and most of NE FL, with high potential for a hard freeze and Cold Weather Advisories.&& .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 It will stay chilly on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 40s to 50s across the area, with luckily no precipitation chances. Friday night will be brutally cold, with low temperatures dropping down into the low 20s across inland SE GA, mid to upper 20s across the SE GA coast and inland NE FL, and low 30s near the St. Johns river basin and NE FL coast. These lows promote hard freeze conditions for most inland areas, but with calm winds, wind chills will hover just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria for SE GA at this time, however inland NE FL is forecast to fall below the threshold of 25 degree wind chills. Temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday night, but it is still likely to fall below freezing for inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley. Highs Sunday and Monday will finally reach the 60s, with low temperatures staying above freezing area-wide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Northerly winds will continue through the forecast period with sustained winds of 10-15 knots and gusts of 20-25+ knots, with gusts diminishing for inland sites by around 22-00z. Precipitation will build in the afternoon and evening with wintry precip including possible snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain initially forming around d 01-03z and then continuing through about 12-14z. Ceilings will drop to IFR levels as precipitation builds and will persist through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough developing over the coastal waters bring increasing chances for precipitation for area waters throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure will be situated to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents: High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 23 35 21 39 / 100 0 10 0 SSI 29 39 30 43 / 100 20 10 10 JAX 28 40 30 47 / 100 20 10 20 SGJ 33 46 38 50 / 100 50 20 30 GNV 28 42 32 47 / 100 20 10 20 OCF 32 46 34 51 / 100 30 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132- 136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124- 125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340- 422-425-522. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ125-133-138. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 454-470-472-474. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1216540 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:06 AM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 839 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 No major updates to the forecast at this time. Cold weather hazard products remain in effect. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure to the northwest across the TN valley is bringing light northerly winds over the area while mid level clouds blanket the area as WSW flow in the mid and high levels well north of a now near stationary front south of the FL keys sends moisture up and over our region downstream of a developing low just east of the TX Gulf coast. Despite the clouds, cold air advection thanks to the high to the NW has already lowered temperatures below freezing NW of Waycross with mid/upper 30s into I-10 away from the coast. Winds from the north will continue to supply cold temperatures falling to near or just below freezing through sunrise from I-10 (west of I-95) northward into SE GA and a Freeze warning remains in effect until 9AM. Today, low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf of Mexico. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dewpoints in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-2 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. Cold, freezing temperatures will be slow to warm up on Wednesday as most precipitation ends by late morning as the low departs east into the Atlantic with cloudy skies lingering over much of NE FL through the afternoon. Strong Arctic high pressure will wedge down the SE coast and limit highs to only the mid/upper 30s over SE GA and the low 40s over inland NE FL with mid 40s for the NE FL coast and north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Arctic high pressure will remain entrenched with a surface axis from Delaware to central GA. This feature will keep cold conditions overnight Wednesday night while coastal troughing remains over the FL offshore waters with NNE winds backing overnight to north to NNW. The initial flow from the NNE will buffer coastal NE FL from the coldest temperatures due to flow off the relatively warmer nearshore waters (in the 50s) with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s but fall to the low 30s west of the St Johns river and the upper 20s west of highway 301 with even colder lows in the low to mid 20s in SE GA bringing potential hard freeze conditions. Despite light winds inland 5-10 mph, cold weather advisory conditions are likely given very cold inland temperatures which will be near hard freeze levels (below 25 in inland SE GA, below 27 degrees over inland NE FL coastal SE GA) Thursday, the coastal troughing will persist as another mid/upper level shortwave trough digs into the central US. The approaching trough will push the core of the arctic high to the north east into the Atlantic with a dry cold front moving eastward through the TN valley. Locally, clouds and scattered coastal showers will move onshore the NE FL coast, but temperatures will remain above freezing, so only rain is expected with light rainfall amounts under a tenth of an inch. By Thursday night, the coastal showers will shift east as the coastal troughing is kicked out to sea as the mid/upper level shortwave advances eastward into the deep south. The departing coastal trough will allow winds to back to the northwest and lows will fall to freezing to much of the NE FL coast with mid/upper 20s west of the St Johns river and the low/mid 20s over SE GA setting up another potential Hard Freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 High pressure centered over Texas will slowly make its way over northeast Florida for the weekend bringing in dry air into the region. With the high in place, winds will be coming out of the northwest and pulling cold air into the region Friday and Saturday keeping high and low temperatures below average. As the high makes its way off the Atlantic coast, winds will shift to northeasterly, helping to raise daytime high temperatures to near normal by Sunday into the beginning of the week. Moisture will begin filling back into the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing a chance for some precipitation in the morning and afternoon of 15-20% at the start of the week, mainly over southeast Georgia and along and north of I-10. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 VFR conditions should persist for the next few hour, then MVFR ceilings around 2.5 KFT will begin to drift onshore to SSI and then to SGJ and the duval terminals 14Z-16Z with overcast skies lowering to 5.0 kft from 10.0 kft. Still expecting rain to overspread the area as a surface low moves east through the Gulf towards southern Florida this afternoon with light rain beginning after 21Z with ceilings lowering to low end MVFR levels about 1.0 to 1.5 kft. Northerly winds will be 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. After 00Z, winds will increase more at SGJ to 15 knots gusts to 25 knots with winds 10-15 knots at SSI where rain will begin to change to or mix with Freezing rain between 02Z-06Z noted with PROB30 group before changing to a mix of light snow, freezing rain and ice pellets. JAX will change from steady rain to freezing rain after 06Z as temperatures at the surface fall below freezing, then CRG should see freezing rain after 08Z as well as GNV as the low moves south of the area and high pressure builds to the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough has developed over the coastal waters brining chances for precipitation to the area in the early morning hours. Chances will continue to increase throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure is to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents:High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 44 25 36 21 / 50 90 0 0 SSI 48 29 41 30 / 40 100 20 20 JAX 50 29 41 30 / 50 100 30 20 SGJ 55 33 49 38 / 60 100 50 30 GNV 52 29 42 31 / 40 100 20 20 OCF 55 32 47 36 / 50 100 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132- 136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124- 125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 470-472. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1216538 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 649 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure to the northwest across the TN valley is bringing light northerly winds over the area while mid level clouds blanket the area as WSW flow in the mid and high levels well north of a now near stationary front south of the FL keys sends moisture up and over our region downstream of a developing low just east of the TX Gulf coast. Despite the clouds, cold air advection thanks to the high to the NW has already lowered temperatures below freezing NW of Waycross with mid/upper 30s into I-10 away from the coast. Winds from the north will continue to supply cold temperatures falling to near or just below freezing through sunrise from I-10 (west of I-95) northward into SE GA and a Freeze warning remains in effect until 9AM. Today, low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf of Mexico. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dewpoints in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-2 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. Cold, freezing temperatures will be slow to warm up on Wednesday as most precipitation ends by late morning as the low departs east into the Atlantic with cloudy skies lingering over much of NE FL through the afternoon. Strong Arctic high pressure will wedge down the SE coast and limit highs to only the mid/upper 30s over SE GA and the low 40s over inland NE FL with mid 40s for the NE FL coast and north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Arctic high pressure will remain entrenched with a surface axis from Delaware to central GA. This feature will keep cold conditions overnight Wednesday night while coastal troughing remains over the FL offshore waters with NNE winds backing overnight to north to NNW. The initial flow from the NNE will buffer coastal NE FL from the coldest temperatures due to flow off the relatively warmer nearshore waters (in the 50s) with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s but fall to the low 30s west of the St Johns river and the upper 20s west of highway 301 with even colder lows in the low to mid 20s in SE GA bringing potential hard freeze conditions. Despite light winds inland 5-10 mph, cold weather advisory conditions are likely given very cold inland temperatures which will be near hard freeze levels (below 25 in inland SE GA, below 27 degrees over inland NE FL coastal SE GA) Thursday, the coastal troughing will persist as another mid/upper level shortwave trough digs into the central US. The approaching trough will push the core of the arctic high to the north east into the Atlantic with a dry cold front moving eastward through the TN valley. Locally, clouds and scattered coastal showers will move onshore the NE FL coast, but temperatures will remain above freezing, so only rain is expected with light rainfall amounts under a tenth of an inch. By Thursday night, the coastal showers will shift east as the coastal troughing is kicked out to sea as the mid/upper level shortwave advances eastward into the deep south. The departing coastal trough will allow winds to back to the northwest and lows will fall to freezing to much of the NE FL coast with mid/upper 20s west of the St Johns river and the low/mid 20s over SE GA setting up another potential Hard Freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 High pressure centered over Texas will slowly make its way over northeast Florida for the weekend bringing in dry air into the region. With the high in place, winds will be coming out of the northwest and pulling cold air into the region Friday and Saturday keeping high and low temperatures below average. As the high makes its way off the Atlantic coast, winds will shift to northeasterly, helping to raise daytime high temperatures to near normal by Sunday into the beginning of the week. Moisture will begin filling back into the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing a chance for some precipitation in the morning and afternoon of 15-20% at the start of the week, mainly over southeast Georgia and along and north of I-10. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 VFR conditions should persist for the next few hour, then MVFR ceilings around 2.5 KFT will begin to drift onshore to SSI and then to SGJ and the duval terminals 14Z-16Z with overcast skies lowering to 5.0 kft from 10.0 kft. Still expecting rain to overspread the area as a surface low moves east through the Gulf towards southern Florida this afternoon with light rain beginning after 21Z with ceilings lowering to low end MVFR levels about 1.0 to 1.5 kft. Northerly winds will be 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. After 00Z, winds will increase more at SGJ to 15 knots gusts to 25 knots with winds 10-15 knots at SSI where rain will begin to change to or mix with Freezing rain between 02Z-06Z noted with PROB30 group before changing to a mix of light snow, freezing rain and ice pellets. JAX will change from steady rain to freezing rain after 06Z as temperatures at the surface fall below freezing, then CRG should see freezing rain after 08Z as well as GNV as the low moves south of the area and high pressure builds to the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough has developed over the coastal waters brining chances for precipitation to the area in the early morning hours. Chances will continue to increase throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure is to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents:High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 44 25 36 21 / 50 90 0 0 SSI 48 29 41 30 / 40 100 20 20 JAX 50 29 41 30 / 50 100 40 20 SGJ 55 33 49 38 / 60 100 60 30 GNV 52 29 42 31 / 40 100 30 20 OCF 55 32 47 36 / 50 100 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132- 136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124- 125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 470-472. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1216522 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 513 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPANDED TO ALL OF DUVAL AND CLAY COUNTIES... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MARION, EASTERN PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure to the northwest across the TN valley is bringing light northerly winds over the area while mid level clouds blanket the area as WSW flow in the mid and high levels well north of a now near stationary front south of the FL keys sends moisture up and over our region downstream of a developing low just east of the TX Gulf coast. Despite the clouds, cold air advection thanks to the high to the NW has already lowered temperatures below freezing NW of Waycross with mid/upper 30s into I-10 away from the coast. Winds from the north will continue to supply cold temperatures falling to near or just below freezing through sunrise from I-10 (west of I-95) northward into SE GA and a Freeze warning remains in effect until 9AM. Today, low pressure will continue to develop as it moves east across the Gulf of Mexico. The surface low will be supported by a mid/upper level shortwave energy diving south from the upper plains phasing with a southern stream shortwave emerging from the 4 corners region into a strong deep trough stretching from the western Great Lakes SSW into the lower MS valley. This trough will also create a potent jet streak from the TN valley into the Mid Atlantic coast that will place the right entrance region over our area, allowing precipitation to fill in over our area by this afternoon as the surface low moves east. With cold temperatures aloft below freezing over interior SE GA and surface temperatures initially above freezing, precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow NW of US-84 until evaporative cooling in the column (due to dry cold dewpoints in the low 20s) lowers temperatures below freezing towards closer to sunset. South of US-84 to I-10, precipitation will begin as rain, but change as temperatures fall to below freezing early this evening after sunset with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain falling with a mix of snow and sleet north of the FL/GA state line. Rain will also begin to change to Freezing rain mixed with sleet along the SE GA coast and then become mixed with snow after midnight. Highs will reach the mid/upper 40s in SE GA and the low/mid 50s over NE FL. Colder temperatures will arrive late tonight as strong arctic high pressure shifts into the upper OH valley and pushes subfreezing temperatures south of I-10 into north central FL and eastward to the NE FL coast down to St Augustine. This will support rain changing over to freezing rain to locations south of I-10 such as Gainesville and eastward to the JAX Beaches. As temperatures fall through sunrise, freezing Rain is expected as far south as Ocala and as far east as St Augustine before temperatures can rise above freezing Wednesday mid to late morning. Guidance from the HRRR and other model guidance help support additional confidence in light icing impacts into St Johns, eastern Putnam, and Marion county and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. The Winter Storm Warning has expanded to include all of downtown Jacksonville east to the JAX beaches and into coastal Nassau county due to several hours of mixed precipitation and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch along with a half inch of sleet/snow mix that will produce moderate impacts to travel and utilities. The greatest potential for ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch or higher will be west of Jacksonville along I-10 into the Suwannee river valley where major impacts due to icing are possible. About 1-2 inches of snow or snow/sleet will remain NW of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Everett. Lows will fall to the mid 20s over SE GA and the upper 20s over NE FL along I-10 west of Jacksonville with lows 30-32 along the NE FL coast as far south St Augustine and SW to Palatka and Ocala. Brisk northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph along the coast will deliver very cold wind chills Wednesday in the early morning hours with wind chill values in the upper teens over SE GA and the low/mid 20s over all of NE FL and a cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these very cold conditions through 10AM Wednesday. Cold, freezing temperatures will be slow to warm up on Wednesday as most precipitation ends by late morning as the low departs east into the Atlantic with cloudy skies lingering over much of NE FL through the afternoon. Strong Arctic high pressure will wedge down the SE coast and limit highs to only the mid/upper 30s over SE GA and the low 40s over inland NE FL with mid 40s for the NE FL coast and north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Arctic high pressure will remain entrenched with a surface axis from Delaware to central GA. This feature will keep cold conditions overnight Wednesday night while coastal troughing remains over the FL offshore waters with NNE winds backing overnight to north to NNW. The initial flow from the NNE will buffer coastal NE FL from the coldest temperatures due to flow off the relatively warmer nearshore waters (in the 50s) with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s but fall to the low 30s west of the St Johns river and the upper 20s west of highway 301 with even colder lows in the low to mid 20s in SE GA bringing potential hard freeze conditions. Despite light winds inland 5-10 mph, cold weather advisory conditions are likely given very cold inland temperatures which will be near hard freeze levels (below 25 in inland SE GA, below 27 degrees over inland NE FL coastal SE GA) Thursday, the coastal troughing will persist as another mid/upper level shortwave trough digs into the central US. The approaching trough will push the core of the arctic high to the north east into the Atlantic with a dry cold front moving eastward through the TN valley. Locally, clouds and scattered coastal showers will move onshore the NE FL coast, but temperatures will remain above freezing, so only rain is expected with light rainfall amounts under a tenth of an inch. By Thursday night, the coastal showers will shift east as the coastal troughing is kicked out to sea as the mid/upper level shortwave advances eastward into the deep south. The departing coastal trough will allow winds to back to the northwest and lows will fall to freezing to much of the NE FL coast with mid/upper 20s west of the St Johns river and the low/mid 20s over SE GA setting up another potential Hard Freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 High pressure centered over Texas will slowly make its way over northeast Florida for the weekend bringing in dry air into the region. With the high in place, winds will be coming out of the northwest and pulling cold air into the region Friday and Saturday keeping high and low temperatures below average. As the high makes its way off the Atlantic coast, winds will shift to northeasterly, helping to raise daytime high temperatures to near normal by Sunday into the beginning of the week. Moisture will begin filling back into the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing a chance for some precipitation in the morning and afternoon of 15-20% at the start of the week, mainly over southeast Georgia and along and north of I-10. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 The 00Z TAF period will begin with increasing mid level clouds through 12Z and northerly winds 5-8 knots for inland TAF sites to around 10 knots at the coastal TAF sites as high pressure builds across the TN valley to the northwest. Lower clouds, MVFR decks between 1.5 kft to 2.5 kft will begin to move onshore from 13-15Z to the coastal and duval TAF sites under overcast mid level clouds and northerly winds increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots by 16Z-18Z. An area of low pressure will move east through the Gulf of Mexico towards the FL peninsula Tuesday with a shield of rain overspreading the region from the south in the afternoon hours with light steady rain prevailing after 21Z at all terminals. By 00Z, moderate steady rain will move in from the south with ceilings lowering to IFR levels between 0.5 kft and 1.0 kft, but probabilities too low for LIFR ceilings to end the period. After 02Z, temperatures will be near to below freezing at SSI with prevailing steady rain/snow mix there. Also have included PROB30 group for freezing rain at SSI between 02-06Z as NBM probabilities increase steadily towards 06Z as surface temperatures drop. Too early for freezing rain or mixed precipitation at KJAX, but mixed precipitation may be included after 06Z for KJAX and KVQQ in the 12Z TAF forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 An inverted trough has developed over the coastal waters brining chances for precipitation to the area in the early morning hours. Chances will continue to increase throughout the day, reaching 60-70% chances by this evening. High pressure is to the northwest today, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf, increasing northerly winds out over the the local waters. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Rip Currents:High rip current risk at all area beaches today through Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 505 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 44 25 36 21 / 50 90 0 0 SSI 48 29 41 30 / 40 100 20 20 JAX 50 29 41 30 / 50 100 40 20 SGJ 55 33 49 38 / 60 100 60 30 GNV 52 29 42 31 / 40 100 30 20 OCF 55 32 47 36 / 50 100 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-133-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132- 136-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124- 125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340- 422-425-522. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-133-137-140-240-340. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ133-138. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 470-472. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1216496 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 21.Jan.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1250 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The forecast was on track with minor changes. Cold and dry conditions in the low levels while high pressure ridge remains to our northwest. Mid level winds will back in response to the approaching shortwave trough. This will lead to isentropic lift aloft and bring additional mid to upper level clouds overnight. Seeing sct-broken clouds around 15 kft now over northeast FL, pushing in from the southwest. Some stratocu clouds expected in impinge on the northeast FL coast shortly after midnight as a coastal trough forms offshore. Added coastal Glynn and Camden to freeze headlines tonight with temps there dropping to lower to mid 30s. May be some question whether the southern tier of the warning will get to freezing as the clouds may interrupt the cooling process. Current temps down there are at least 2-3 deg warmer than model trends. Otherwise, the northern parts of the warning look good with Alma already down to 28- 30 degrees at 9 pm. Minor changes to some low chances of showers over the coastal waters and over the southeast zones where the rain chances are in the 20-30 percent range by sunrise. Very minor changes were made to the MAX temps Tuesday to lower them a bit given the amount of clouds coming in. Also moved up the start time of the precip a bit for Tuesday aftn. For the marine forecast, some of the guidance wants to start small craft advisory conditions a bit sooner which looked reasonable. Will adjust winds and seas for the update and move up the start time of the small craft headline. Winds from HREF and GFS suggest gales with gusts of 35-45 kt will be likely. Given this fact and the gradient, included a gale watch for the 23z Tue-12z Wed, for offshore waters. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 Clouds will gradually increase through the night, as moisture advects into area from the Gulf. As the high pressure area builds more toward the north Tonight, the flow will become more from the north northeast. At the coast, the northeast flow will bring milder air into area from the relatively warmer coastal waters. A weak inverted trough is also expected to develop over the coastal waters late Tonight which will increase coastal cloud cover toward dawn, along with the chance for a few rain showers. Further inland, another freeze is expected. Lows mid 20s to lower 30s across SE GA, lower 30s inland NE FL, to the mid to upper 30s coastal NE FL. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 Clouds will gradually increase through the night, as moisture advects into area from the Gulf. As the high pressure area builds more toward the north Tonight, the flow will become more from the north northeast. At the coast, the northeast flow will bring milder air into area from the relatively warmer coastal waters. A weak inverted trough is also expected to develop over the coastal waters late Tonight which will increase coastal cloud cover toward dawn, along with the chance for a few rain showers. Further inland, another freeze is expected. Lows mid 20s to lower 30s across SE GA, lower 30s inland NE FL, to the mid to upper 30s coastal NE FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 A rare and potentially impactful winter weather event remains on track Tuesday night into midday Wednesday for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida. Model trends are consistently increasing the snow and freezing rain potential over the last few days, with models also coming more into agreement with each other on impacts. The current forecast has the highest chances for measurable snow (40-65% chance of 1" accumulation) from the line of Statenville to Waycross to Darien GA northward. For areas south of there but along and north of I-10, there is a medium (40-60%) chance of freezing rain accumulation greater than 0.1" and a low (20-30%) chance of ice accumulations reaching 0.25". Latest 13Z NBM guidance is showing a slight increase in probabilities from the overnight runs, with a little dip southward towards Starke/High Springs FL for 30-40% chance of 0.1" ice accumulation. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon, in effect for Tuesday night into Wednesday for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, west of the St. Johns river basin and north of (not including) Marion county. Definition of local criteria for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning: "Accumulation of one inch or more of snow per event, and/or any accumulation of ice or sleet that impacts transportation, commerce, or power." Ice accumulations can cause significant impacts to power lines, utilities, trees, some roofs and cause very dangerous transportation conditions, especially accumulations as rise above 0.10" or even 0.25". In addition to the medium threat of snow for portions of southeast Georgia, accumulating snow may mask icy road conditions beneath, driving in these conditions would be extremely dangerous. It is encouraged to avoid travel if possible, and if travel is unavoidable, check road conditions beforehand and keep an emergency kit in the car. In addition to the moderate risk of ice and/or snow accumulation, there is high confidence in dangerously cold wind chills and multiple nights of freezing conditions. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s, with bitter wind chills in the teens to 20s area-wide as northerly winds pick up Tuesday night. Precipitation chances remain possible along the coast Wednesday night, however confidence is low at this time that we will receive anything other than a cold rain since the precipitation chances currently line up well with above-freezing forecast low temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 Thursday and Friday will remain cold, with highs in the 40s to low 50s, with lows in the 20s to mid 30s. The lowest wind chills both mornings will be in the upper teens to 20s over southeast Georgia and most of northeast Florida, Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Warnings will likely be issued both mornings for some locations to finish out the week. Showers will remain possible (20-30% chance) along the coast Thursday, however temperatures will be above freezing at this time, so there are no concerns for any wintry mix. Temperatures Saturday will remain about 10 degrees cooler than climatology, mainly in the 50s to lower 60s across the area, but by Sunday temperatures will return to normal, rising to above 60 area-wide. No precipitation is forecast this weekend, with partly cloudy skies and relatively calm winds. The only concern this weekend will be another round of cold temperatures Saturday morning, with lows dipping into the 20s across inland locations, and lower 30s along the coast. Saturday night into Sunday morning, it will be more mild, however most locations across inland southeast Georgia will see lows hit freezing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 The 00Z TAF period will begin with increasing mid level clouds through 12Z and northerly winds 5-8 knots for inland TAF sites to around 10 knots at the coastal TAF sites as high pressure builds across the TN valley to the northwest. Lower clouds, MVFR decks between 1.5 kft to 2.5 kft will begin to move onshore from 13-15Z to the coastal and duval TAF sites under overcast mid level clouds and northerly winds increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots by 16Z-18Z. An area of low pressure will move east through the Gulf of Mexico towards the FL peninsula Tuesday with a shield of rain overspreading the region from the south in the afternoon hours with light steady rain prevailing after 21Z at all terminals. By 00Z, moderate steady rain will move in from the south with ceilings lowering to IFR levels between 0.5 kft and 1.0 kft, but probabilities too low for LIFR ceilings to end the period. After 02Z, temperatures will be near to below freezing at SSI with prevailing steady rain/snow mix there. Also have included PROB30 group for freezing rain at SSI between 02-06Z as NBM probabilities increase steadily towards 06Z as surface temperatures drop. Too early for freezing rain or mixed precipitation at KJAX, but mixed precipitation may be included after 06Z for KJAX and KVQQ in the 12Z TAF forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 High pressure will be located to the northwest Today, then more toward the north Tonight. An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters Tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will be located to the northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions begin Tuesday. A period of Gales will be possible Tuesday night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 412 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures. Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV). DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985) CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985) CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985) AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985) GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985) ------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011) CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011) AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011) GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 44 27 37 23 / 50 90 10 10 SSI 47 31 42 31 / 50 100 30 20 JAX 49 31 44 31 / 50 100 50 30 SGJ 53 36 50 39 / 60 100 70 40 GNV 52 32 44 32 / 50 100 40 20 OCF 54 34 47 36 / 50 100 50 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220- 225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522. Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-237- 322-422-425-522. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ454. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472. Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for AMZ470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ474. && $$ |
