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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1228183 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 955 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week. By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold front approaching by the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 9:50 AM Saturday...The forecast remains on track with no notable changes made with the mid-morning update. Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 7 AM Sat...Today, ahead of a cold front advancing in from the northwest, we`ll have high pressure offshore with a strong gradient persisting. The mesoscale features at play today have become clearer, and this will all begin with an area of dying convection, and associated MCV, moving into ENC from WNC/upstate SC this morning. Clouds and any remaining stratiform rain from this feature will move into the area by late morning, and though this will curtail heating slightly, it will also serve to provide increased forcing for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, an active sea breeze will provide increased convergence for the development of convection, and these two together will bring the chances for rain to about 40-60% this afternoon. The chances of severe weather from this activity will be low...limited by the lack of deep layer shear...but still non-zero. (severe weather discussion continued below) Temperatures will once again reach the upper 70s to low 80s by early afternoon, with additional heating dependent on cloud cover and convective coverage. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 7 AM Sat...By this evening, increasing deep layer shear and forcing from the advancing cold front should allow for convective activity to become more organized. Additionally, increasing lapse rates will allow for instability to increase this evening non-diurnally, which will further aid in strengthening convection. High res guidance continues to indicate at least a broken line of thunderstorms will form and move SE across ENC tonight, and with these storms there will a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. Convection will push off the NC coast early tomorrow morning with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front. Temperatures will remain in the low 70s or upper 60s ahead of the front, and will then drop rapidly into the 50s behind it. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... Sunday...Cooler high pressure will build in from the north and west on Sunday bringing a dry but relatively cooler day overall with high temps getting into the mid to upper 60s along the OBX and low to mid 70s inland. Lows Sun night get down into the upper 40s inland and into the 50s along the OBX and coast. Could see some overcast skies to start the morning especially along the coast as shower activity offshore will push further out to sea and away from the region resulting in partly cloudy to clear skies across ENC by the afternoon. Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will be on the increase especially along our northern zones which could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s across ENC by midweek as well. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/... As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions should prevail this morning and through tonight, though a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through early tonight. Rain and associated low level stratus will produce at least some risk of temporary restrictions to sub-VFR levels. Mostly high and mid level clouds will persist over the area early this morning, but some low level clouds could linger across the northern coastal plain counties, including KPGV and KISO, for next hour or so causing MVFR ceilings. A round of weak convection is expected late this morning and into the early afternoon which will bring increased rain chances and likely bring ceilings to 4000-6000 ft. A better organized line of thunderstorms is expected to form early this evening and dive south across ENC early tonight. These storms will pose a risk for gusty winds and small hail, and could also bring sub-VFR conditions to all terminals as they move through. Improving conditions behind this line of convection after midnight as cooler and drier air move in, and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the early tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and increases precip chances. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Sat...Small craft conditions will develop shortly across much of the coastal waters in the strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front. Then, behind the front late tonight, a stronger surge of NW winds will keep Small craft conditions going into Sunday afternoon. Winds this morning will increase to SW 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts after sunrise, and then strengthen further with diurnal heating this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. This evening winds will subside slightly, and there may even be a lull with winds below 20 kts right before the cold front moves through after midnight. Immediately behind the front, winds will surge to 20-30 kts with gusts approaching Gale Force by early tomorrow morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft today, but will increase tonight to 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions possible Sunday No significant changes to the long term forecast as post frontal Nrly surge works down the coast Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt primarily across the Croatan/Roanoke and Pamlico Sounds, and across the Coastal waters with 4-6 ft seas found across the Coastal Waters as well. Slightly lighter winds will be found along all other waters Sun morning. As high pressure continues to quickly build in from the north and west, winds should quickly ease by the afternoon down to 5-10 kts and seas will fall to 3-5 ft thus ending any SCA by about mid afternoon Sun. Beyond this, with high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek, expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed afternoon and evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ135-156. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ158-231. && $$ |
| #1228177 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 737 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week. By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold front approaching by the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 7 AM Sat...Today, ahead of a cold front advancing in from the northwest, we`ll have high pressure offshore with a strong gradient persisting. The mesoscale features at play today have become clearer, and this will all begin with an area of dying convection, and associated MCV, moving into ENC from WNC/upstate SC this morning. Clouds and any remaining stratiform rain from this feature will move into the area by late morning, and though this will curtail heating slightly, it will also serve to provide increased forcing for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, an active sea breeze will provide increased convergence for the development of convection, and these two together will bring the chances for rain to about 40-60% this afternoon. The chances of severe weather from this activity will be low...limited by the lack of deep layer shear...but still non-zero. (severe weather discussion continued below) Temperatures will once again reach the upper 70s to low 80s by early afternoon, with additional heating dependent on cloud cover and convective coverage. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 7 AM Sat...By this evening, increasing deep layer shear and forcing from the advancing cold front should allow for convective activity to become more organized. Additionally, increasing lapse rates will allow for instability to increase this evening non-diurnally, which will further aid in strengthening convection. High res guidance continues to indicate at least a broken line of thunderstorms will form and move SE across ENC tonight, and with these storms there will a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. Convection will push off the NC coast early tomorrow morning with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front. Temperatures will remain in the low 70s or upper 60s ahead of the front, and will then drop rapidly into the 50s behind it. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... Sunday...Cooler high pressure will build in from the north and west on Sunday bringing a dry but relatively cooler day overall with high temps getting into the mid to upper 60s along the OBX and low to mid 70s inland. Lows Sun night get down into the upper 40s inland and into the 50s along the OBX and coast. Could see some overcast skies to start the morning especially along the coast as shower activity offshore will push further out to sea and away from the region resulting in partly cloudy to clear skies across ENC by the afternoon. Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will be on the increase especially along our northern zones which could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s across ENC by midweek as well. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/... As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions should prevail this morning and through tonight, though a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through early tonight. Rain and associated low level stratus will produce at least some risk of temporary restrictions to sub-VFR levels. Mostly high and mid level clouds will persist over the area early this morning, but some low level clouds could linger across the northern coastal plain counties, including KPGV and KISO, for next hour or so causing MVFR ceilings. A round of weak convection is expected late this morning and into the early afternoon which will bring increased rain chances and likely bring ceilings to 4000-6000 ft. A better organized line of thunderstorms is expected to form early this evening and dive south across ENC early tonight. These storms will pose a risk for gusty winds and small hail, and could also bring sub-VFR conditions to all terminals as they move through. Improving conditions behind this line of convection after midnight as cooler and drier air move in, and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the early tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and increases precip chances. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Sat...Small craft conditions will develop shortly across much of the coastal waters in the strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front. Then, behind the front late tonight, a stronger surge of NW winds will keep Small craft conditions going into Sunday afternoon. Winds this morning will increase to SW 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts after sunrise, and then strengthen further with diurnal heating this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. This evening winds will subside slightly, and there may even be a lull with winds below 20 kts right before the cold front moves through after midnight. Immediately behind the front, winds will surge to 20-30 kts with gusts approaching Gale Force by early tomorrow morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft today, but will increase tonight to 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions possible Sunday No significant changes to the long term forecast as post frontal Nrly surge works down the coast Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt primarily across the Croatan/Roanoke and Pamlico Sounds, and across the Coastal waters with 4-6 ft seas found across the Coastal Waters as well. Slightly lighter winds will be found along all other waters Sun morning. As high pressure continues to quickly build in from the north and west, winds should quickly ease by the afternoon down to 5-10 kts and seas will fall to 3-5 ft thus ending any SCA by about mid afternoon Sun. Beyond this, with high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek, expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed afternoon and evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ135-156. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ158-231. && $$ |
| #1228152 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 26.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 332 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week. By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold front approaching by the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 3 AM Sat...Warm and humid conditions will continue early this morning with moderate southerly flow and areas of mid and high clouds keeping temperatures form dropping much. Expect temps to hold steady in the mid to upper 60s through sunrise. Today, ahead of a cold front advancing in from the northwest, we`ll have high pressure offshore with a strong gradient persisting. The mesoscale features at play today have become clearer, and this will all begin with an area of dying convection, and associated MCV, moving into ENC from WNC/upstate SC this morning. Clouds and any remaining stratiform rain from this feature will move into the area by late morning, and though this will curtail heating slightly, it will also serve to provide increased forcing for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, an active sea breeze will provide increased convergence for the development of convection, and these two together will bring the chances for rain to about 40-60% this afternoon. The chances of severe weather from this activity will be low...limited by the lack of deep layer shear...but still non-zero. (severe weather discussion continued below) Temperatures will once again reach the upper 70s to low 80s by early afternoon, with additional heating dependent on cloud cover and convective coverage. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and early tonight will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. As of 3 AM Sat...By this evening, increasing deep layer shear and forcing from the advancing cold front should allow for convective activity to become more organized. Additionally, increasing lapse rates will allow for instability to increase this evening non-diurnally, which will further aid in strengthening convection. High res guidance continues to indicate at least a broken line of thunderstorms will form and move SE across ENC tonight, and with these storms there will a risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail. Convection will push off the NC coast early tomorrow morning with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front. Temperatures will remain in the low 70s or upper 60s ahead of the front, and will then drop rapidly into the 50s behind it. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... Sunday...Cooler high pressure will build in from the north and west on Sunday bringing a dry but relatively cooler day overall with high temps getting into the mid to upper 60s along the OBX and low to mid 70s inland. Lows Sun night get down into the upper 40s inland and into the 50s along the OBX and coast. Could see some overcast skies to start the morning especially along the coast as shower activity offshore will push further out to sea and away from the region resulting in partly cloudy to clear skies across ENC by the afternoon. Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will be on the increase especially along our northern zones which could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s across ENC by midweek as well. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/... As of 3 AM Sat...VFR conditions should prevail this morning and through tonight, though a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through early tonight. Rain and associated low level stratus will produce at least some risk of temporary restrictions to sub-VFR levels. Mostly high and mid level clouds will persist over the area early this morning, but guidance is indicating that some low level clouds could develop across the northern coastal plain counties, including KPGV, briefly around sunrise which could bring some brief MVFR ceilings. A round of weak convection is expected late this morning and into the early afternoon which will bring increased rain chances and likely bring ceilings to 4000-6000 ft. A better organized line of thunderstorms is expected to form early this evening and dive south across ENC early tonight. These storms will pose a risk for gusty winds and small hail, and could also bring sub-VFR conditions to all terminals as they move through. Improving conditions behind this line of convection after midnight as cooler and drier air move in, and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the early tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and increases precip chances. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Sat...Small craft conditions will develop shortly across much of the coastal waters in the strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front. Then, behind the front late tonight, a stronger surge of NW winds will keep Small craft conditions going into Sunday afternoon. Winds this morning will increase to SW 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts after sunrise, and then strengthen further with diurnal heating this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. This evening winds will subside slightly, and there may even be a lull with winds below 20 kts right before the cold front moves through after midnight. Immediately behind the front, winds will surge to 20-30 kts with gusts approaching Gale Force by early tomorrow morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft today, but will increase tonight to 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions possible Sunday No significant changes to the long term forecast as post frontal Nrly surge works down the coast Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt primarily across the Croatan/Roanoke and Pamlico Sounds, and across the Coastal waters with 4-6 ft seas found across the Coastal Waters as well. Slightly lighter winds will be found along all other waters Sun morning. As high pressure continues to quickly build in from the north and west, winds should quickly ease by the afternoon down to 5-10 kts and seas will fall to 3-5 ft thus ending any SCA by about mid afternoon Sun. Beyond this, with high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek, expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed afternoon and evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-150-152-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ154-156-158. && $$ |
