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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1209044 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 413 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A potent cold front has moved across the area overnight. Another reinforcing cold front will move through today followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 2:30 AM Thursday...A potent cold front has nearly cleared the CWA and a much cooler, drier Arctic air mass is expanding over ENC. Lows will reach the 40s and 50s tonight with very dry dew points in the 20s and 30s across the coastal plain. A second (and dry) cold front will move through this afternoon, which will reinforce the CAA. This continued tightened gradient will keep WNW winds gusting to around 20 mph today. The combination of inland min RHs around 30-35% and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today (see the Fire Weather section below). Skies will gradually clear through the morning and highs will be seasonable in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Strong CAA throughout the day and ample radiative cooling overnight will cause temps to fall to nearly freezing. It`s also not out of the question for some well- sheltered areas to dip into the 20s. For these reasons, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Martin, Pitt, Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, and inland Onslow counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Breezy and cold Friday - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Friday - Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. After a chilly start to the day, highs on Friday will struggle to reach the low 50s. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 12:45 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. It is producing gusty winds, showers, and a wide range of VFR to IFR conditions. As the front passes, there will be a sharp shift in wind with gusts up to 25-30 kt (higher along the coast). Skies will clear behind the front and all TAF sites should return to VFR within the next hour or two. WNW winds could gust to 20 kt through today but will dissipate after sunset. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday into Saturday - Sub VFR CIGs possible Friday A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. A period of sub-VFR CIGs may develop during peak heating Friday, with a few SHRA not completely out of the question. VFR conditions then look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 3:40 AM Thursday...Westerly winds over the coastal waters are currently gusting to 30-40 kts in response to the strong cold front that moved through overnight. The coastal waters will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through today and as a reinforcing front moves through later this evening, gusts will briefly jump to 30-35 kt. Overnight, the gusts will drop back to 25-30 kt. Seas will respond by increasing to 4-6 ft today. Conditions will improve across the inland rivers this morning, but unfavorable winds and seas will continue across the remaining rivers, sounds, and coastal waters through the end of the week. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gale Watch issued for portions of the ENC waters Friday evening into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday, likely leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale-force gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have issued a Gale Watch for a portion of the ENC waters where confidence is the highest. An expansion of the watch is possible if the current signal holds. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today. Inland min RH values will fall to 30-35% and westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Wednesday...An extended period of 20-25kt Werly winds behind a cold front tonight into Saturday may lead to minor soundside flooding concerns for the Outer Banks. Current thinking is these persistent Werly winds should remain just weak enough to limit impacts, but minor water level rises will be possible for soundside NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and Roanoke Island. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ090-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ131-135-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156. && $$ |
| #1209027 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1254 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Another reinforcing cold front moves through on Thursday, followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 12:30 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range can be expected across the coastal plain with higher gusts likely closer to the coast and along the OBX. Winds will relax behind the front but will continue to be gusty through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are ongoing and will continue until the front is offshore (1-2 AM). A few rumbles of thunder are possible but it is not likely. Temps are currently in the 60s but will crater to the 40s and 50s by early morning as we settle into this Arctic air mass. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/.. As of 3 PM Wed...High temps return to closer to normal and even slightly lower than climo, with readings in the upper 50s to around 60 for most. Blustery conditions with wrly winds of 10-15 gusting to around 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3:20 AM Wednesday... Thursday night - Saturday night...The next front will move through late Thursday afternoon and its CAA will send lows into the low to mid 30s across the coastal plain. Winds will remain strong enough to help minimize the threat for widespread frost/freeze impacts, but it`s not out of the question for some sheltered areas to drop below freezing. Saturday will feel very similar to Thursday with highs struggling to exceed the 50s and breezy winds westerly winds. Sunday - Tuesday...High pressure will develop over the southeastern US and extend up the mid-Atlantic coast. This will support a dry forecast and warming trend with high temperatures climbing from the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday to the upper 60s/low 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 12:45 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. It is producing gusty winds, showers, and a wide range of VFR to IFR conditions. As the front passes, there will be a sharp shift in wind with gusts up to 25-30 kt (higher along the coast). Skies will clear behind the front and all TAF sites should return to VFR within the next hour or two. WNW winds could gust to 20 kt through today but will dissipate after sunset. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Gusty winds will be the main aviation concern through the long term. With multiple fronts forecast to move across the area, westerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will persist through Saturday. Winds will weaken to 5-10 kt on Sunday as high pressure begins to extend into the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 3 PM Wed...S to SW winds of 10-15kt expected through early evening. Big story will be strong arctic front that will blast through the waters later this evening through early morning hours. The wind switch will be very dramatic, and increase out of the NW with a 35-40 kt gust(s) as the front passes through. Because the gusts are expected to be tied to the fropa, will not issue a gale warning because of the very brief nature of the winds lasting less than an hour, but instead handle with MWS`s as the front nears the waters, which will be around midnight. SCA`s remain in place for all coastal waters and inland rivers. Have ended the Neuse/Pamlico/Bay rivers a bit earlier, but later shifts will likely have to reissue these as winds come back up late afternoon or early eve Thu with reinforcing fropa. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Additional cold fronts on Thursday and Friday will generate unfavorable marine conditions that will persist through early Sunday morning. Seas will be the highest early Thursday morning (6-7 ft) and late Friday night (6-7 ft) with a slight lull between these times. A slight lull is expected during the afternoon, after which winds will become westerly and return to the same strength. Winds will peak on Friday at 25-30 kt with a few gusts to 35 kt. We continue to carry a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory for the central waters at this time, but a Gale Watch will be kept in mind. Winds and seas will decrease through the day Saturday with all zones expected to be below SCA criteria by early Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday, with min RH values falling to 30-35% inland combined with westerly wind gusts 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Wednesday...An extended period of 20-25kt Werly winds behind a cold front tonight into Saturday may lead to minor soundside flooding concerns for the Outer Banks. Current thinking is these persistent Werly winds should remain just weak enough to limit impacts, but minor water level rises will be possible for soundside NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and Roanoke Island. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ131-135-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156. && $$ |
