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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
| #1203765 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 PM 15.Oct.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 432 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 432 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A positively tilted upper trough will continue to progress across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday. An associated strong cold front is still on track to quickly sweep across our forecast area this evening, bringing increased northerly winds, much cooler temperatures and clearing skies tonight into Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to be quite chilly in the mid to upper 40s over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL and in the lower to mid 50s near the immediate coast and beaches. Highs on Tuesday should only reach into the mid to upper 60s over much of our region. The much drier airmass advecting into our area will result in low relative humidity values, which when combined with breezy northerly winds will bring increased fire weather concerns. See the Fire Weather discussion below for additional details. Clear skies and even colder temperatures are on tap for Wednesday night, with lows falling into the mid to upper 30s over interior areas and in the lower 40s to lower 50s closer to the immediate coast and beaches. /21 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 432 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Dry and cool conditions will persist through the week and slowly warm up by early next week. Deep upper troughing over the eastern US will slowly lift northeast as dry cool northwesterly flow continues to push into the area. By the weekend, a large area of high pressure will build over the eastern US in advance of the next upper trough. This will likely lead to a gradual warmup and moistening through the weekend but not enough to expect any rainfall through the forecast. Temperatures will start off cool with highs in the low 70s on Thursday and gradually climb each day into the low to mid 80s by the middle of the week. Lows will also follow this progression with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s on Wednesday night increasing back towards the 60s by the weekend. BB/03 && .MARINE... Issued at 432 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Strong offshore flow will develop over the marine area tonight following the passage of a fast moving cold front. Northerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt over area bays and sounds, and 25-30 kt over the Gulf waters (as well as Lower Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound) with some gusts over 35 kt possible. We will issue a Gale Warning for these marine zones tonight into Wednesday morning, plus a Small Craft Advisory for other protected waters and bays. Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist over the Gulf marine zones through early Thursday morning. /21 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 432 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Hazardous fire weather conditions are expected across the entire area on Wednesday with red flag conditions likely along the coastal areas. As the dry cold front pushes through a rather strong gradient in its wake will develop across the coastal areas leading to 20 foot winds around 15 mph out of the north northeast with higher gusts. This coupled with increasing drought conditions across the area and low afternoon relative humidity values will support the potential for easily spreading fires. Winds will likely not be as high further inland across interior Alabama and southeastern Mississippi; however, abnormally dry conditions and low RHs will support dangerous fire conditions and if winds increase the red flag warning will need to be extended inland. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 50 68 44 71 47 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 53 68 49 70 51 73 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 56 70 50 71 53 74 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 46 67 38 71 39 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 46 66 38 69 39 73 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 45 65 37 68 39 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 48 68 38 71 40 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ261>266. FL...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206. MS...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630- 633>636. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631- 632. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1203743 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 15.Oct.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A band of MVFR ceilings across southern portions of the forecast area, including near KMOB/KBFM/KJKA/KPNS should gradually lift to VFR early this afternoon. Light winds will generally prevail this afternoon into this evening. A cold front will quickly move through the forecast area later this evening. Northerly winds will increase to 10-15 knots with gusts over 20 knots over inland locations and up to around 20 knots with a few gusts over 25 knots possible near the coast between 03-06Z this evening following the passage of the front. /21 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A large upper level trough will amplify over the eastern states through midweek. This will push the front currently located near the coast well offshore by tonight. A surge of cool, dry air will move into the area today into tonight as sfc high pressure builds into the area. No precip is expected as the atmosphere remains very dry. Highs today will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler, in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to mid and upper 40s along the coast. /13 SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 An upper level ridge shifts over the eastern Conus in the wake of an exiting upper level shortwave trough, with an embedded weak upper trough remaining over the Southeast. Another ridge building over the Plains over the weekend shifts east to over the eastern Conus into the coming week, maintaining upper level high pressure over the Southeast and keeping high temperatures above seasonable norms. Surface high pressure that has moved over the Ohio River Valley continues to shift east through the weekend into the coming week, with surface winds over the forecast area shifting between northeasterly and easterly. A tight pressure gradient is maintained over the Gulf of Mexico, with a series of surface troughs over the southern Gulf help to maintain the tighter gradient. The airmass over the forecast area and nearby remains dry, with a dry forecast indicated. High temperatures in upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday rise into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday. Low temperatures ranging from around 40 to near 50 Thursday night rise into the 50s by Monday night. The tighter pressure gradient over the Gulf combined with the easterly direction at times will bring an increase in swell on area beaches and an increase in the rip risk to moderate to strong through the weekend. /16 MARINE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong offshore flow will develop tonight in the wake of a cold front continuing through Wednesday night. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow develops on Thursday and continues through the end of the week as high pressure moves north of the area. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 50 68 44 71 47 74 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 53 69 49 70 51 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 55 70 50 72 52 75 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 44 67 38 70 40 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 44 67 39 69 40 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 43 65 38 68 39 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 47 69 39 71 41 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1203715 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 15.Oct.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions expected through the day with VFR conditions prevailing tonight. Northerly winds increase this evening and overnight. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A large upper level trough will amplify over the eastern states through midweek. This will push the front currently located near the coast well offshore by tonight. A surge of cool, dry air will move into the area today into tonight as sfc high pressure builds into the area. No precip is expected as the atmosphere remains very dry. Highs today will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler, in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to mid and upper 40s along the coast. /13 SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 An upper level ridge shifts over the eastern Conus in the wake of an exiting upper level shortwave trough, with an embedded weak upper trough remaining over the Southeast. Another ridge building over the Plains over the weekend shifts east to over the eastern Conus into the coming week, maintaining upper level high pressure over the Southeast and keeping high temperatures above seasonable norms. Surface high pressure that has moved over the Ohio River Valley continues to shift east through the weekend into the coming week, with surface winds over the forecast area shifting between northeasterly and easterly. A tight pressure gradient is maintained over the Gulf of Mexico, with a series of surface troughs over the southern Gulf help to maintain the tighter gradient. The airmass over the forecast area and nearby remains dry, with a dry forecast indicated. High temperatures in upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday rise into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday. Low temperatures ranging from around 40 to near 50 Thursday night rise into the 50s by Monday night. The tighter pressure gradient over the Gulf combined with the easterly direction at times will bring an increase in swell on area beaches and an increase in the rip risk to moderate to strong through the weekend. /16 MARINE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong offshore flow will develop tonight in the wake of a cold front continuing through Wednesday night. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow develops on Thursday and continues through the end of the week as high pressure moves north of the area. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 50 68 44 71 47 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 53 69 49 70 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 80 55 70 50 72 52 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 80 44 67 38 70 40 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 80 44 67 39 69 40 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 76 43 65 38 68 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 47 69 39 71 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1203703 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 AM 15.Oct.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 423 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A large upper level trough will amplify over the eastern states through midweek. This will push the front currently located near the coast well offshore by tonight. A surge of cool, dry air will move into the area today into tonight as sfc high pressure builds into the area. No precip is expected as the atmosphere remains very dry. Highs today will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler, in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to mid and upper 40s along the coast. /13 && .SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 An upper level ridge shifts over the eastern Conus in the wake of an exiting upper level shortwave trough, with an embedded weak upper trough remaining over the Southeast. Another ridge building over the Plains over the weekend shifts east to over the eastern Conus into the coming week, maintaining upper level high pressure over the Southeast and keeping high temperatures above seasonable norms. Surface high pressure that has moved over the Ohio River Valley continues to shift east through the weekend into the coming week, with surface winds over the forecast area shifting between northeasterly and easterly. A tight pressure gradient is maintained over the Gulf of Mexico, with a series of surface troughs over the southern Gulf help to maintain the tighter gradient. The airmass over the forecast area and nearby remains dry, with a dry forecast indicated. High temperatures in upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday rise into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday. Low temperatures ranging from around 40 to near 50 Thursday night rise into the 50s by Monday night. The tighter pressure gradient over the Gulf combined with the easterly direction at times will bring an increase in swell on area beaches and an increase in the rip risk to moderate to strong through the weekend. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong offshore flow will develop tonight in the wake of a cold front continuing through Wednesday night. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow develops on Thursday and continues through the end of the week as high pressure moves north of the area. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 50 68 44 71 47 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 53 69 49 70 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 80 55 70 50 72 52 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 80 44 67 38 70 40 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 80 44 67 39 69 40 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 76 43 65 38 68 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 47 69 39 71 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1203675 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 15.Oct.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 VFR ceiling conditions will mostly prevail through Tuesday evening. However, we are anticipated broken to overcast skies around 3000-3500 feet to spread over the area through the remainder of the night through mid Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable to light northerly winds are expected through the forecast. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A large upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS amplifies substantially and becomes oriented over the eastern states while a large upper ridge builds over the central states. A cold front currently located near the coast pushes well offshore tonight followed by cool high pressure building into the area through Tuesday night. Deep layer moisture is expected to remain too limited to support pops, and have continued with a dry forecast. Lows tonight range from around 50 well inland to around 60 at the coast, then Tuesday night will be cooler with lower 40s well inland ranging to the lower 50s near the coast. Highs on Tuesday typically range from the mid 70s well inland to around 80/lower 80s elsewhere. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday night. /29 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at XXXXXX A cool crisp northerly breeze, dry conditions, and pumpkins in the patch, actual fall has arrived! A rather impressive trough over the eastern US will drive dry and cold air into the area beginning Wednesday and likely lasting into the weekend. Temperatures will be the talk of the forecast as highs will plummet into the 60s on Wednesday and only climbing into the upper 70s by Saturday. Time to dust off the sweatshirts as lows will be the coldest Wednesday night dropping into the upper 30s inland to mid 40s near the coast. While temperatures and dewpoints probably won`t support any frost, we cannot rule out the possibility of our first Jack Frost sighting north of highway 84 on Thursday morning. Temperatures slowly rebound by the weekend as high pressure builds over the area in advance of the next system. BB/03 MARINE... Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the open Gulf waters, Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound beginning at 1 am Wednesday due to a strengthening offshore flow. The Small Craft Advisory ends for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound by 1 pm Wednesday, then ends by 10 am Thursday for the open Gulf waters as winds subside. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters from late Thursday night into Saturday night, possibly into Sunday as well. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 58 82 50 68 43 70 49 74 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 80 54 68 47 70 53 74 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 80 55 68 50 70 55 74 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 51 78 45 66 38 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 52 79 44 66 38 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 49 75 43 65 37 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 53 79 47 67 38 70 45 74 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
