|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1216626 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 22.Jan.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 318 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 An area of low pressure over the south central Gulf of Mexico continues to move eastward across the Florida peninsula early this morning. A large swath of precipitation, both liquid and frozen, continues to fall from SW Florida northward to south GA and the Carolinas. Much of the southeast U.S. and even parts of north Florida and the Florida panhandle has seen sub-freezing temperatures yesterday evening and early this morning, which has led to plentiful snowfall over the past 12-24 hours. This has not been the case for west central and southwest Florida where the temperatures have remained right at, or just above freezing, which has led to a mostly cold rain overnight. The rain will continue to gradually taper off with only part of the Nature Coast and north Florida expected to see any more rain over the next few hours as it clears from west to east. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for Levy County through 10 am and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from Sarasota County northward until 10 am. The rain will completely taper off by late morning, but mostly cloudy skies will persist through the day. There is another chance of rain early Thursday morning as a short wave moves north of the area. Strong high pressure building into the eastern U.S. will keep a cold north-northeast wind flow over the area keeping temperatures well below average for the next few days. Daytime highs will only top out in the 40`s and 50`s each afternoon through the end of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the 30`s and 40`s Thursday morning, and then into the mid 20`s to low 40`s Friday and Saturday mornings. A Freeze Watch has also been issued for early Thursday morning for Levy County, with a Freeze Warning, Cold Weather Advisory and Frost Advisory possibly needed each morning through the end of the week. A more zonal upper level pattern sets up over Florida by Saturday morning and high pressure moves over the southeast U.S. This will allow for rain-free conditions over the weekend as well as the start to a gradual warm up. Daytime highs will be back in the 60`s and 70`s by Sunday with the warming trend continuing into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 IFR CIGs around 700-900 ft, -RA and BR will continue through late morning around 14-15Z, then becoming MVFR around 1000-2500 ft through the remainder of the period. Gusty NNE winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots will persist through late this morning, then decreasing to less than 10 knots for the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 A cold rain will continue over the northeast Gulf of Mexico through mid morning, then becoming mostly cloudy for the remainder of the day. There`s another chance of light rain possible early Thursday morning, then rain-free conditions expected for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A tight pressure gradient between an area of low pressure moving across Florida and strong high pressure to the north along the eastern seaboard is producing gusty northerly winds to Gale Force early this morning. Buoy reports are showing winds around 30-40 knots over the eastern gulf waters and seas in excess of 10 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect through 10 am, then a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 7 pm. Small Craft should continue to Exercise Caution as some gusty winds around 15-20 knots and seas around 3-6 feet will be possible through the end of the week. Conditions gradually improve by Saturday with northeast winds around 10-15 knots and seas around 2-4 feet expected over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 An area of low pressure moves across Florida producing light rain through the morning and once again early Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in for the latter part of the week and into the weekend with rain-free conditions expected. Winds will remain below 15 knots and RH values remain above critical levels with no other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 52 42 53 38 / 30 20 30 10 FMY 57 50 59 44 / 30 40 20 10 GIF 53 44 52 38 / 40 20 50 10 SRQ 56 46 55 40 / 20 30 30 10 BKV 51 36 52 30 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 52 46 53 42 / 30 30 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Levy- Inland Levy. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Tampa Bay waters. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
