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Rafael approaching Cuba from the south as a Major Hurricane in the month of November. #RAFAEL #FLWX
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| #1206847 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 06.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
| #1206792 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 06.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery. Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall structure. Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning. Dropsonde data indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon. Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening while it approaches western Cuba. The hurricane will be traversing warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it makes landfall in western Cuba later today. Some weakening is forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael`s intensity later in the forecast period. The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael should continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is increasing spread after that time. Much of the guidance now suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system through much of the forecast period. This has resulted in a southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours. The new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
| #1206755 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 06.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane`s Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael`s inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required. Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba. Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today and tonight. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
