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The Next Name on the List is Sara

Posted: 12:57 AM 12 November 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:27 PM 12-Nov EDT

4:00PM EDT 13 November 2024 Update
Advisories have begun on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (99L) in the Caribbean. Over the next several days the incipient cyclone is forecast to track west into Central America, where watches and warnings are now in effect.

2:00PM EDT 12 November 2024 Update
The Area of Interest we are tracking in the Caribbean has been Invest tagged, 99L, and recon missions are being tasked. Development odds are very high, with most modeling also suggesting that if the forecast TC doesn't run into central America, or at least not too quickly, Rapid Intensification is also likely.

Interests in the central to western and northwestern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention as Watches and Warnings may be issued at any time this week.
Ciel

Original Update


Development in the Caribbean is becoming likely this week from a tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure in the region and models are exceptionally bullish on this Invest TBD's prospects for the time of year. Shear is forecast to be unseasonable low and SSTs unseasonably warm.

The next name on the list in the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Sara.

One might have to look back as far as 1985's Kate for a possible analog to current modeling and this system may take many by surprise if it does form and track towards the southeast US. Kate became the latest mainland US-landfalling hurricane on record.

We already have a Forecast Lounge up to go deeper into this system's modeling.

An Invest number will likely be assigned very soon and relevant links will be added.


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Rafael

Posted: 12:13 PM 02 November 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:31 PM 04-Nov EDT

6:00PM EST 9 November 2024 Update
Rafael is winding down after having become the farthest west tracking Major Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in any November on record. Rafael's moisture is funneling into Louisiana this weekend, enhancing flooding rains across this region.

NHC:
Quote:


....Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding....




4:00PM EST 4 November 2024 Update


EIGHTEEN has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in short order, and has the potential to undergo RI as it heads towards Cuba.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

10:00AM EST 4 November 2024 Update
Recon finds PTC 18 has become a Tropical Cyclone, therefore is now TD 18 and soon to become Rafael based on everything we see.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

1:00PM EST 3 November 2024 Update

Above: Two Areas of Interest in the W ATL that have potential to become TCs within the next 48 hours.

Of greatest interest is Invest 97L, which early modeling suggests could become yet another hurricane in short order. Recon is investigating this incipient cyclone today, and the data collected will used by these models to greatly improve their forecast simulations going forward.

Original Update
Conditions favorable for a back-loaded 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continue, and we are now watching four areas of interest in the Atlantic, one of which has been named today (Patty), and another that has just been Invest tagged this morning (97L).

Patty has become the sixteenth named storm of the season. A Tropical Storm Warning is up for all of the Azores islands in the northern Atlantic.

Closer to home, Invest 97L is likely to become a named storm over the next few days and interests in and around the Caribbean may want to begin paying closer attention. While models suggest a track towards the southern US is very possible, there are a number of known unknowns, and it is too soon tell. We are already doing some deeper dives into its potential in the Rafael Forecast Lounge





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Mid October After Milton: Nadine and Oscar

Posted: 04:02 AM 11 October 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:56 PM 20-Oct EDT

2:00PM EDT 19 October 2024 Update
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
Quote:


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey



9:30AM EDT 19 October 2024 Update


Potential Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN is now Tropical Storm Nadine just offshore of Belize, and this morning, Invest 94L has become Tropical Storm Oscar, just east of the Turks and Caicos.
Ciel

9:30PM EDT 18 October 2024 Update
FIFTEEN is forecast to become Nadine prior to making landfall along or near Belize this weekend, and we do have a forecast lounge up on this system: Nadine Forecast Lounge
Ciel

4:30PM EDT 18 October 2024 Update
Invest 95L in the northwest Caribbean is now PTC FIFTEEN and NHC Advisories are being issued. Those with interests in Central America and the Yucatan may want to begin paying close attention as a potentially flood-producing tropical cyclone is likely this weekend.
Ciel

6:15PM EDT 13 October 2024 Update
Invest 94L in the eastern Tropical Atlantic could become a concern later this week for portions of the Antilles, and we have started a Forecast Lounge on it Oscar Forecast Lounge
Ciel

Original Update
The last advisories on Milton have been issued and beyond Milton, Leslie is still churning, and invest 94L is also potentially the next system in the eastern Atlantic that may make it all the way to the Caribbean. This year has a lot of late activity in the MDR, which is fairly unusual for October, since typically we start looking closer in toward the Gulf and Western Caribbean for development this time of year.

Milton had significant impacts to Florida from tornadoes, to rain to surge and wind, but the rapid shear induced weakening prevented the truly catastrophic scale.












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Milton Makes Landfall with Catastrophic Impacts

Posted: 10:07 AM 05 October 2024 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:57 PM 07-Oct EDT

8:30PM EDT 9 October 2024 Update
Landfall has occurred near Siesta Key, Fl. NHC:
Quote:


...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA....
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west coast of Florida.

A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.

The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES




1:30PM EDT 9 October 2024 Update
Time has mostly run out to safely prepare for life-threatening weather that is already spreading inland across the state, and now is the time to hunker down, away from the water ("Run from the water!"), and protected from the wind and debris ("Hide from the wind!")
Quote:

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed later this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.



Ciel

4:55PM EDT 8 October 2024 Update


Hurricane Milton is Category 5 once again. Earlier today the cyclone completed an eyewall replacement and has been reorganizing at a dizzying pace. There is a slight shift to the south with the 18z models, and indeed how it has been tracking overall, and the official NHC cone is nudged a touch in that direction. Everyone is reminded that the hurricane is not itself a point or a line.

To Milton's northeast, an area of frontal boundary and lower pressure that in many ways had possibly been adding some extra tug to the north, is in the process of consolidating off the east coast of Florida and is now a stout gale low that may be acquiring some subtropical and tropical characteristics
Ciel


5:00PM EDT 7 October 2024 Update

HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina



11:55AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton is now Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Ciel

9:15AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton continues to RI and recon has just found that the Major Hurricane is up to 150 MPH, still strengthening. There continues to be indications that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur today, and this would result in a process that makes Milton larger and an even greater storm surge producer on Florida.

Preps to protect life and property should be rushing to completion today.
Ciel

4:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Watches and Warnings will likely be issued for portions of Florida within the next 6-12 or so hours.

Milton is now forecast by NHC to peak at 145 MPH (mid-range Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale), but as noted in their discussion, this could be conservative, and Cat 5 is solidly on the table. In fact, some of our better hurricane models are now in the high-end Cat 5 range (what many might call "Cat 6").

Putting the wind threat aside for a moment, which is very high, it is forecast that Milton begins its extra-tropical transition phase prior to landfall, or at the very latest, prior to entering the east coast of Florida. This transitional period is expected to result in lowering the hurricane's top-line max wind speeds, but come at a cost to all of a wind field that spreads out, producing damage over an even greater area, as well as producing surge much further up and down the coasts than if the core held tightly.

Also, the threat of inland flooding will be substantial. The PRE event that has set up in advance of Milton's approach is already producing flooding, and this will be exacerbated during the landfall and passage of Milton.

Those living in or with interests in Florida from the Big Bend region all the way to the South Florida Keys are encouraged to begin taking preparations to protect life and property.
Ciel

1:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
Recon has confirmed that Milton is now a hurricane and NHC is updating the new Advisory at this time.
Ciel

8:00AM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
NOAA Recon aircraft finds Milton stronger with 991mb pressure and 60mph winds. Forecast track remains mostly unchanged, models should tighten up a bit better later today (not until after the 12z runs) with recon data added in. Those in the Florida peninsula in the cone should make preparations today and tomorrow. Hurricane watches for some areas of Florida may be issued sometime tonight or tomorrow.

12:25PM CDT Update
TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Milton.

10:15AM Update
Advisories for TD#14 to begin at 11AM EDT.

Original Update
The area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is now up to a 90% chance to develop, and those along the west coast of Florida should watch it closely as the potential is developing for it to possibly a bad one for somewhere along the southwest or Western Central Florida coastline, and also impact the peninsula to the Atlantic. Including Tampa.

Models range from Naples to near Crystal River, with the angle coming from the west not as oblique as the ones from the West Caribbean, there may be a little more accuracy in track once advisories start to be issued, which could start later tonight or tomorrow depending on how much the system develops.


Timing is most likely for a Wednesday landfall with impacts being felt a day or two (or even Sunday) before in the form of very heavy rain, and more impacts toward later Tuesday surge and wind, with landfall likely daytime Wednesday (which could change)

The worst surge impacts at landfall will likely be at and just to the right (south) of the landfall point, on exit into the Atlantic that switches to the left (north) side with onshore winds.


MILTON FORECAST LOUNGE

















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Active Phase of Atlantic Continues into October

Posted: 03:29 PM 01 October 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:34 AM 03-Oct EDT

1:15PM EDT 4 October 2024 Update



Recovery operations continue from Major Hurricane Helene, which is now the deadliest CONUS-landfalling tropical cyclone since Katrina. The tragic loss of life from Helene is mostly due to the all-too-often underappreciated inland flooding, and maybe finally a move to a more comprehensive TC Impacts Scale rather than merely a wind scale (Saffir Simpson) will start.

Unfortunately, this season is not yet over, with climatologically about a quarter of the activity remaining, and there is a risk that this year could even continue to be back-loaded if not also go into overtime, and we are now watching two named TCs (record-setting Major Hurricane Kirk, and Leslie, which is likely to become a strong hurricane as well), plus three additional Areas of Interest.

Closest to home is the feature we have been watching that is now in the western Gulf of Mexico and has increasing model support for significant development. While this system does not yet have an Invest tag, one could be assigned later today or sometime this weekend, and interests from eastern Mexico to the northern Gulf coast states and Florida may want to begin paying closer attention.

We do have a Forecast Lounge up on the Gulf Area of Interest: 92L Lounge


Original Update



After being in hibernation during the climo peak of the season, the Atlantic basin turned on a dime last month with the arrival of a very favorable MJO pulse, and the generally supportive to very supportive conditions for TC development persist as we start the month of October.

Most recently and closest to home, a gyre is apparent over Central America, helping lift up and enhance a wave that has just tracked into the Bay of Campeche on the Atlantic side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a preexisting trof that has come off northwestern South America, and also an area of low pressure (Invest 96E) on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. All three of these disturbances are likely to influence development, if any, in the Western Atlantic (Gulf and Caribbean) over the next few days. There is also some potential for 96E to cross over into the Gulf.

Way out in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, recently-named Kirk is now a hurricane and forecast to become an ACE building Major far away from North America, and also a stout low behind Kirk, Invest 91L, is likely to become a TC any day now. 91L's future track is less certain and will be watched.










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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida

Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.

A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.

Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED

Selected Weather Reports:

Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"

From the Melbourne NWS:

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.

LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.

MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.

OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.

ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.

OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.

VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
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Ed Dunham

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: 03:19 PM 09 April 2015
The CSU initial forecast for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2015 has been released with the following lead-in comments: "We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

As of the end of February an El Nino is in place and it is expected to increase in strength with at least a moderate El Nino quite likely for the entire Atlantic hurricane season. Some of the forecast models including the ECMWF suggest that a strong El Nino event will occur. Since the end of November, 2014, SSTs in almost all of the Atlantic tropical basin have declined considerably with anomalies greater than -1.5C in some areas in the eastern Atlantic and the western Caribbean Sea. This significant shift downward in tropical Atlantic SSTs will produce another year of decreased activity in the basin and it also reduces the likelihood of any early season storms. The CSU forecast numbers are 7 tropical storms, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes with one hurricane becoming a major storm. This is one of the lowest CSU tropical cyclone forecasts that I have ever seen them issue. They also expected an ACE of 40 and a seasonal activity level at 45% of normal.

CSU lists 1991 as one of their analog years, however, with such a rapid decline in the overall Atlantic tropical SSTs, I believe that 1969 and 1991 are no longer valid analogs. My new analog years are:

1. 1977 - Atlantic activity was 6/5/1 ....... EASTPAC activity was 8/4/0
2. 1959 - Atlantic activity was 10/6/2 ...... EASTPAC activity was 15/5/3
3. 1953 - Atlantic activity was 13/6/4 ...... EASTPAC activity was 4/2/0

The updated averages for these analog years is 10/6/2 - which is close to my current forecast of 9/6/2. (updated on 4/15 to 8/5/1)

TSR also issued its updated forecast for the Atlantic basin and lowered their forecast totals to 11/5/2 with the following comments: "The TSR forecast has been reduced, since early December 2014, due to updated climate signals indicating that the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in August-September 2015 will likely be cooler than normal and cooler than thought previously. Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season."

As the season gets underway, keep an eye on the level of activity in the EASTPAC. If it starts to look like the Eastern Pacific is going to have a busy year, then 1953 can be discarded as an analog year for the Atlantic - which means that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be mighty quiet - especially if the tropical Atlantic SST cooling trend continues into the Summer.

Remember that you can post your own forecast of seasonal numbers in the Storm Forum until the season starts on June 1st.
ED
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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
ED
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Arthur

Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
Kudos to The Weather Channel for deviating from the 'official' forecast earlier this afternoon. At 5PM EDT on July 3rd, NHC made an adjustment westward with the forecast track for Hurricane Arthur - and the actual track is probably going to be slightly west of that.

An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.

Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.
ED
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Supplies

Posted: 02:43 PM 28 May 2014
Its been a long time - over 8.5 years - since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. Have you checked your hurricane supplies lately? If you haven't, some items may need to be updated/replaced. Most folks (myself included) have a box of batteries in their personal home emergency kit, but its been so long since the last storm that the chances could be pretty good that those batteries may need to be replaced.

Have any canned or powdered foods exceeded their storage or use date?

If you have a generator, have you checked it out recently to see if it is still in good operating order? If you stored gasoline for that generator last year, its time to use it in a vehicle or other equipment and refill the gas containers with a supply of fresh gasoline.

If you put aside some medications/insulin etc., in a First Aid kit for use in an emergency when you might not be able to get to your doctor for a few days, are they still useable?

Do you still have a small analog battery-operated TV in your hurricane supply kit? If so, it will no longer work and you will need a digital TV replacement. There are some good ones on the market that will usually pick up a few stations with their built-in antenna.

If a hurricane reduces the IQ of your Smart Phone, do you have an alternate plan for getting in touch with co-workers, friends and relatives? A portable radio is valuable for getting storm updates, evacuation status changes and school and business closings/openings.

Don't forget to include the needs of your pets in your hurricane planning - especially if you need to evacuate when a storm threatens.

I have this uneasy feeling that this year someone in Florida is going to be thankful that they took the time to prepare for the storm.
ED

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