AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 207 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE (OMEGA BLOCK) WILL EXTEND FROM FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WELL OF THE EAST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL E-NE FLOW AND CLD COVER...BUT STILL PLEASANT. EXPECT THICKER CLD COVER ACRS MUCH OF VA AND NC LATE THIS MORNG...TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SSE OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. SO...GENERALLY PRTLY SNY ON AVERAGE ACRS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL LOCALES TO THE MID 70S ALONG/WEST OF I-95. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS (OMEGA BLOCK) WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SSE CAUSING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. MODELS SHOW THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR (SFC RIDGING) REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS(ISOLATED T-STORMS?) MAY REACH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOW POPS IN WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI THIS WEEKEND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WET PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AND ORGANIZATION (SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER VERSUS MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS)...SO 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. LIGHT SE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS OR BRIEF SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP THU MORNING. A SCT CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON WITH 5-8 KT E WINDS. A SIMILAR SITUATION SETS UP FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ON FRI...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES RMNS ALIGNED INVOF ERN CBRD (FM SE CANADA TO GA)...WHL LRG STM SYS CIRCULATED (WELL) OFFSHR. THE STM WL WOBBLE A BIT TO THE SSW TDA...STAY NRLY STNRY THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO MV E AWAY FM THE ERN CONUS THIS WKND. NNE WNDS TO RMN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THU...THEN GRDLLY BCMG SE INTO THE WKND. SCAS UP FOR SEAS 5+ FT ON THE OCN...AND HV XTNDD THROUGH FRI. SEAS XPCTD TO SLOLY SUBSIDE THIS WKND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG