AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 444 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HAS CAUSED CIRRUS AND SCATTERED ALTOCU OVER PA AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MIN TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO THESE VALUES. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS AND SMALL TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN FLOOD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CONTINUING TO RISE. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AT MOST...WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS 11-12C AT 850 MB WITH 10C AT 800 MB...THIS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 29/12Z MODEL SUITE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT THURSDAY OF FRIDAY...BUT AM THINKING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT TONIGHT... VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL LINGER AT 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON THE RI NEARSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDING LATE. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WITH 5 FOOT SEAS REMAINING ON THE OUTER WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS START AT 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. && .HYDROLOGY... EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM IRENE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CONNECTICUT AND FARMINGTON RIVERS IN MODERATE FLOOD WITH RIVER LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT HARTFORD AND MIDDLETOWN MAY CREST LATER WEDNESDAY AT THE MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. BUT GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE WE DECIDED TO KEEP THESE TWO SITES IN MODERATE FLOOD FOR NOW AND JUST MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN MA AFFECTING FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE DEERFIELD RIVER CONTINUE TO RECEDE. ACTIVE READINGS SHOW RIVER LEVELS ARE EITHER FALLING OR HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MUCH STANDING WATER REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK