AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR FORECAST AND 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE COMPLETED UPDATES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR
APPROACH OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH
MOVING NORTH. INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE TO 60 TO 70...ADDED WORDING
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE AREAWIDE...AND LOWERED TEMPS FROM UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 90S OUT WEST UNDER DEEP CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF KMFE AND
WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONE SHOWER
ATTACHED TO THIS AREA JUST PASSED KHRL AND A COUPLE MORE ARE STILL
EXPECTED. MAIN SQUALL LINE JUST MOVING SE THROUGH KLRD WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY
REMAINS OF THE SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE REGIONS
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY KMFE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED TSRA
FOR ALL TAFS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF TSRA DO NOT REACH THE
VALLEY AIRPORTS...FLIGHT CORRIDORS TO THE NORTH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY LARGE SQUALL LINE. TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH CIGS OF 1000 FEET EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW ATMOSPHERE REACTS TO SQUALL LINE BEFORE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DETERMINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  77  89  73 /  60  30  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  91  72 /  60  30  10   0
HARLINGEN            88  77  94  71 /  60  30  10   0
MCALLEN              90  77  96  72 /  60  30  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  76  98  71 /  70  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  77  85  75 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$