AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1228 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REDUCING THE CEILINGS TO MVFR AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REDUCING THE CEILINGS TO MVFR AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE CEILINGS ACROSS THE AIRPORTS. THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AS WELL AS DISTURBANCE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT TODAY TO GIVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LET UP A BIT OVERNIGHT OVER LAND AREAS...BUT SHOULD PICK RIGHT BACK UP OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA ON TUESDAY. WITH ELEVATED WINDS COMBINING GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT OTHERWISE...RATHER SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TOWARD THE COAST...WITH LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND TOWARD ZAPATA AND FALCON LAKE REACHING AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE AS WELL WITH LOWER AND MID 70S EXPECTED TONIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A ZONAL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TX AND MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE... NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THESE FEATURES ARE BRINGING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ150- 155-170-175. && $$