AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 939 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF IRENE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 2: WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH WIND WRNG FOR THE S HLF OF THE FA THIS MID MORN. WINDS ALF OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA ARE FALLING... AND GIVEN THAT CURRENT OBS ARE NOT SHOWING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH DESPITE AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DECENT MIXING ALF... BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WINDS HAVE PASSED OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA. FURTHER N...MODELS STILL INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ALF..UP TO 45 KT AT 2 TO 3 KFT AGL...TIL MIDDAY. IF CLDS BREAK LATER THIS MORN... MIXING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALF COULD STILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF CLD CVR DOES NOT BREAK WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...WE WILL LIKELY CANX THIS REMAINING PTN OF THE HIGH WIND WRNG EARLY AS WELL. UPDATE 1: CLEARING LINE COMING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS MUCH QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT SO WILL REDUCE CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST SOONER THIS MORNING. ALSO SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ORGNL DISC: REMNANTS OF IRENE IN THE VICINITY OF ESTCOURT STATION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY. SHOWERS TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. AS IRENE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE, WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUFKIT INDICATES GUSTS TO 45 MPH MAY MIX DOWN THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING UP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AS IRENE MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE CAPE...BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. A BIT OF COOL AIR POOLED ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT SKIES SHOULD STILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY...THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY NOONTIME ACROSS DOWNEAST AND BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN GALE ENDS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO SCA FOR SEAS AS SWELL LEFTOVER FROM IRENE WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SEAS MAY BE AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY IN SWELL...ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006- 010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN