AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1102 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Key Messages: - Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday ahead of a cold front. -Areas of fog and dense fog are expected tonight through Thursday morning. Latest radar indicated scattered light showers moving north across S TX this afternoon in response to a weak warm front/surface trough lifting northward. This activity is expected to wane this evening, then increase after midnight ahead of a cold front. The 12Z CRP sounding showed a lot of moisture that continues to be trapped below 700mb due to a strong capping inversion above the moist layer. However, due to a stronger low level flow, cloud bases and visibilities have been higher today compared to yesterday. The low level jet is progged to strengthen tonight to 40 and possibly up to 50KT. This is expected to keep the airmass a bit more mixed tonight resulting in most locations having visibilities above 1SM. However, some locations could still see visibilities drop to 1/4SM at times ahead of the frontal boundary. Advection sea fog will likely become denser this evening due to dewpoints around 68-71 riding across cooler SSTs in the lower 50s. The sea fog could advect inland leading to 1/4SM visibilities across the islands and coastal counties. Confidence is low to moderate on whether or not we`ll see widespread 1/4SM visibilities across land areas. Thus, will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory. However, over the bays and nearshore waters, confidence is moderate to high for dense sea fog tonight. Thus, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect beginning at 6 pm through Noon Thursday. Currently a Marine Weather Statement is in effect addressing patchy sea fog with vsbys less than 1NM at times. As for the rain chances, a deepening mid/upper level cut off low currently over the Desert SW, will move east toward TX tonight and across the TX Pan Handle Thursday. As the low approaches, a southerly low level jet across S TX is forecast to strengthen to around 40 knots, possibly as high as 50 knots. This will help usher moisture into the area. The moisture is progged to deepen tonight with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 inches by Thursday. The cold front is expected to enter the northwestern CWA early Thursday morning and track east to southeast through the day, reaching the coastline by late Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, the deep moisture will combine with an approaching 140KT upper level jet and increasing diffluence aloft, strong low level convergence, and strengthening low level shear. This combination will lead to a medium to high (40-70%) chance of convection across the northern half of the CWA after midnight tonight into Thursday morning. Chances across the southern half will be low to medium (20-40%). Mainly showers are expected due to a capping inversion at around 700mb, but across the northern portions of the CWA the cap is progged to weaken, allowing for more thunderstorm activity. The best dynamics with strong to severe storms, will be north of the area, but can not rule out a few strong storms developing across the Victoria Crossroads. Better chance for stronger storms to develop will be across the coastal waters due to stronger instability. Behind the front, drier air will filter into S TX, ending rain chances from west to east. The convection is expected to be out to the area by mid afternoon and exiting the middle TX coastal waters late Thursday night. Temperatures will be well above normal tonight and Thursday ahead of the cold front. Not much cold air advection is expected behind the front, but mainly a drier airmass. Decreasing winds and cloud cover Thursday night will allow for efficient radiational cooling with lows closer to seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Key Messages: - Warm and dry weather expected for the long term From Friday, surface winds from the north/northwest will usher in drier air, while keeping max temperatures in the 70s and low 80s and lows in the 40s. Coastal zones will continue to see the cooler waters immediately offshore, resulting in highs generally in the 70s. Friday night, surface winds will shift more southeasterly, resulting in onshore flow and an increase in humidity, as well as an increase in temperatures through Monday. The next disturbance on Tuesday will bring low rain chances (near 20%) to the offshore waters. From Wednesday, the dry pattern continues as we remain in weak flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Conditions across the area have already begun deteriorating across the regions as ceilings are MVFR to IFR at this time. The low status is expected to improve eventually by midday Thursday back to VFR as the front clears the region. There is a possibility for some LIFR at a couple of the eastern TAF sites Thursday morning(CRP and ALI). Winds are expected to remain elevated through the afternoon and return to light and variable by Thursday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Areas of fog and dense fog will continue tonight through Thursday ahead of a cold front. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for tonight. Onshore flow is expected to increase to moderate to strong levels tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight across the offshore waters where the stronger winds are expected to be located. Southerly weak to moderate flow can be expected Thursday, then becoming northwest to north by late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. There is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Thursday. Drier air behind the cold front will end the fog and rain from west to east. Offshore flow continues through Friday before becoming more northeasterly on Saturday. Weak onshore flow makes a return on Sunday. There will be a low chance for showers on Tuesday, but otherwise mainly dry conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 67 77 51 / 30 20 40 10 Victoria 77 67 76 48 / 30 50 70 10 Laredo 76 62 77 48 / 20 30 10 0 Alice 75 65 79 48 / 30 40 40 10 Rockport 72 61 71 50 / 30 20 40 10 Cotulla 75 62 78 46 / 20 60 20 0 Kingsville 75 66 77 50 / 30 20 30 10 Navy Corpus 70 64 71 54 / 20 20 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275. && $$