AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 09Z-10Z
WHEN LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS THROUGH 13Z-14Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND IFR VSBYS/LOW CIGS AT ALI AND VCT AND WILL SHOW
POSSIBILITY WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE/DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF GRADUAL DRYING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DOWN TO 1.7. LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGE
SHOWS PWAT VALUES CLOSER TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE SCEC RANGE OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES BUT IT
SHOULD BE BRIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD MON MORNING CAN
BE EXPECTED. ALSO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG...MAINLY FROM
ALI TO VCT...DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE FOG SHOULD ALSO BE
BRIEF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS THE
VSBY HAS DROPPED TO IFR AT ALI...BUT GENERALLY LASTS LESS THAN AN
HOUR. THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH IFR VSBY`S FOR ALI...BUT IT IS A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSES ON THIS PROCESS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY THE ENCROACHING RIDGE. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD AS GUIDANCE SUITES VARY REGARDING
POSITIONING/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND POSSIBLE
TROPICAL ENTITY TO OUR SOUTH. TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS BELIZE/YUCATAN AND PROGD TO EMERGE INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW. WHERE THIS WAVE GOES AND WHETHER IT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OR
NOT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS CRP CWA. GFS CONTINUES TO
LACK RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING HANDLING OF WAVE THO TODAY/S
OUTPUT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS.
THIS MODEL WANTS TO KEEP VORTICITY WITH THE WAVE RATHER STRETCHED
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND ADVECTS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CWA. 12Z GEM
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT ALSO LACKS SOME CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY AND HISTORY
OF HANDLING HEAT RIDGE BETTER. WITH THAT SAID...12Z ECMWF WANTS TO
BRING A LOW END ORGANIZED SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO OLD MEX
WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CWA
BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN WHAT GFS SAYS. SINCE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ARE
NOW INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES HAVE THUS
INCREASED/EXPANDED POPS FOR PORTIONS OF CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. AS ALWAYS...PLEASE REFER TO TWOAT /TROPICAL WX
OUTLOOK/ FROM NHC REGARDING LATEST INFO WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ABOVE MEX/MAV GUIDANCE REGARDING MAX TEMPS DUE
TO PERSISTENT HORRIBLE PERFORMANCE OF TEMP DATA OUTPUT THIS MONTH.
LEANED CLOSE TO ECMWF AND DGEX WITH DEWPOINTS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS.
THANKS TO BRO FOR COORDINATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  95  75  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  96  75  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 107  80 107  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75 100  75  98  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 104  75 102  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  76  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  79  89  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$